Forecast for Smartphone Market and Chips

Forward Concepts has announced a new study of the worldwide Smartphone market and the key chips that enable them. The study, "Smartphone Device & Chip Market Opportunities '10" covers the top 24 Smartphone vendors and their 2009 market shares and change from 2008. It also provides dozens of detailed forecasts by global region and air interface technology for each through 2014 of Smartphones, key chips that enable them and operating systems.

Some of the key findings are:

· Smartphone shipments worldwide grew 18% in 2009 to 171 million units at a $67 billion level, providing bright market opportunities for both handset and chip vendors in the current economy. The Smartphone semiconductor and display revenue also covered in the report reached $11.7 billion.

· With the economy expected to continue improving, they forecast a compound annual growth rate of 24% for Smartphones to the 496 million unit level in 2014.

· Nokia continues to be the leader in Smartphone shipments, with an estimated 2009 market share of 36.4%, followed by RIM at 19.4%, Apple at 14.9% and HTC at 6.3%. Sharp follows with a 3.5% market share, then Samsung at 3.4%. 18 other Smartphone vendors constitute the remaining 20% share.

· Western Europe has overtaken Japan to be the leader in Smartphone consumption, with a 23% 2009 market share. However, thanks to the iPhone and the introduction of Android phones, North America is forecast to become the leading Smartphone market in 2010, with a forecasted 22% share, closely followed by Western Europe at 21.6%, and fast-growing China at 17%.

· Symbian continues to be the leading Smartphone operating system, with an estimated 43% unit market share in 2009, while RIM's Blackberry O/S and Apple's O/S X has supplanted Microsoft Windows Mobile for the #2 and #3 positions; RIM with an estimated 19% share and O/S X with 15%. Windows Mobile had a 13% share while Linux variants, including Android, reached 8%, followed by, Palm’s WebOS with 2%. Although Symbian is expected to remain dominant, we predict that Android will grow to the #2 position, followed by O/S X in 2014.

On author said that 2009 was the year of Smartphone applications, with Apple’s leading App Store having reached 140,000 applications. All major O/S vendors have followed suit, especially Nokia with its own Ovi initiative. Mobile Internet uptake also remained strong during the year, posting a 29% YoY growth, reaching 500 million subscribers.

This forecast is a good follow on to the previous post on ABI's handset shipments report for last quarter. You would never know if in the US but Nokia and their platform still dominate the world of handsets. It will be interesting to see how fast Andriod based smartphones are adopted by the market and how that affects the iPhone market share.

ABI Reports Handsets Shipments Up in Q4

This is a good sign for 2010 as ABI estimates 336.5 million handsets were shipped in Q4-2009, up 15.1% QoQ. “2009 may have started with a whimper but by 4Q-2009 the global mobile handset market ended with a pretty reasonable bang,” says Jake Saunders, Vice-President for Forecasting at ABI Research. But competition continued to squeeze handset ASPs as Q4-2009 shipment-based ASPs were down 2% to $117.55.

The US stimulus package certainly helped save the mobile handset industry according to Saunders. “Renewed consumer confidence in the second half of 2009 meant that shipments for the whole year only shrank 4.5% to 1.153 billion. Dire scenarios were mooted in early 2009. There is cautious optimism about 2010 despite the fragile nature of the global recovery. ABI Research forecasts shipments to expand to 1.2 billion handsets in 2010.”

Despite Nokia’s weakened position in the smartphone segment, it still managed to maintain 37.7% of the overall handset market. Samsung seems unstoppable - between June 2008 and December 2009, they increased its market share from 15.2% to 20.5%. Samsung has benefited from a strong line-up of feature phones as well as a strong reputation for innovative smartphones. Korea’s level of influence over the handset market is further underscored by LG, the third-largest handset vendor (10.1%). LG has been counting on its S-Class smartphone series to help it secure a bridgehead in the market.

“In 3Q-2009, Motorola, under the direction of Sanjay Jha, has come out of its corner fighting with a refreshed portfolio,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “The Droid has received critical acclaim. However Motorola’s market-share continued to contract to 3.6%.” Sony-Ericsson also experienced a contraction to 4.3% but has high hopes that its Android-based handsets will generate renewed interest. It only seems like a few years ago that Motorola was approaching Nokia for the market leading position but they have really suffered over the years.

HTC’s market share did not fare well early last year. but its circumstances improved slightly in 4Q, to 1.0% share. Notably, HTC announced a revamped handset portfolio strategy, not just targeting high-end smartphones but also launching smartphones that appeal to purchasers with smaller wallets. These low cost “HTC Smart” devices will rely on BREW.

“Smart” Electric Meter Market to Exceed $200B by 2014

“Smart” electricity meters that enable two-way communication between the meter and the utility are being deployed at an increasing pace, especially in North America and Europe according to ABI Research. According to a new study from ABI Research, the number of smart electric meters deployed worldwide will rise from a 2009 level of 76 million to reach about 212 million in 2014. These smart meters fall into the machine to machine (M2M) market which is also growing rapidly as it includes many other applications.

Practice director Sam Lucero says, “As momentum for infrastructure renewal grows, a number of factors are driving the process. High on the list are government regulators. In the US, $3.4 billion in federal economic stimulus funding was directed to smart grid development in November 2009. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) directly encourages smart grid technology adoption by the states, and funds NIST’s efforts to develop a standards-based technology framework to facilitate smart grid adoption.”

For its part, the EU recently enacted a “Third Energy Package” in September 2009 which aims to see every European electricity meter “smart” by 2022.

There are also tantalizing hints of a massive upgrade in China. “Although nothing is confirmed,” notes Lucero, “it has been suggested that China will replace 300 million electricity meters over the next five or so years.”

Other drivers include:

· Efficiency and reliability gains
· Environmental concerns
· Improved customer service
· Energy theft reduction
· Increasing energy market competition

However the path to smart metering is not always smooth. PG&E in California has been one of the early utilities to deploy smart meters, but the rollout has led to claims by consumers that they have been overcharged. PG&E stands by the accuracy of its meters, but the controversy has created a public relations headache – which Lucero terms a “temporary hiccup” – for the firm.

Several microwave companies are designing devices and solutions specifically for this market such as Skyworks, Analog Devices, etc. We will be covering this market as its emerges into the mainstream.

Driving around in my Infotainment-mobile

Home entertainment electronics are finding their way into new vehicles, merging with car-specific functions such as navigation, hands-free phone control, and telematics. "Infotainment" as the technology has been termed, describes the complete ecosystem of electronic devices for automobile-based information and entertainment. Audio and video devices, as well as navigation systems and telematics, are merging into single, fully-integrated systems, creating new challenges for system designers.

Much of the responsibility for the quality of the infotainment system rests with the designers of in-car radio. Thanks to technological breakthroughs in integrated circuits, filters, amplifiers, and antenna designs, sound quality has improved with each new generation of receiver. Broadcasting technology itself has also been upgraded through the Radio Data System (RDS) extension, which offers specialized features for mobile receivers.

Terrestrial digital broadcasting systems, such as digital audio broadcasting (DAB), HD-Radio, Digital Radio Mondiale (DRM), and satellite radio, offer a suite of attractive advantages, although they are still striving to achieve mainstream customer awareness and high-volume market success.

Since more radio functions generally requires additional hardware, available space within the automotive radio-head unit is hard to come by. The compact nature of the electronics also leads to power consumption and heat dissipation problems which must be addressed. The close proximity of electronic systems within the radio-head unit can cause interference and electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) issues, which can result in serious performance problems. This is especially true for sensitive analog building blocks such as the receiver front end and signal lines. Designers must work carefully, using shielding and rigorous testing, to verify that the effects of EMC and interference can be controlled.

Developing next-generation automotive radio platforms that are cost-effective and robust enough to meet customer demands will be a challenge for both OEMs and suppliers. The rapidly accelerating technologies of these systems will require robust product design followed by thorough product qualification. These challenges along with the growing market demand spell potential job opportunities for system designers and engineers with a good handle on EMI issues. We just need to keep our eyes on the road.

Harris Stratex Changes Name to Aviat Networks

Harris Stratex Networks announced today that it has changed its name to Aviat Networks, Inc. (the Company’s ticker symbol will change to AVNW). The new brand represents a culmination of the Company’s transformation over the last three years from that of a specialized microwave backhaul equipment supplier into a leading provider of advanced IP wireless network solutions, with a comprehensive portfolio of migration solutions and lifecycle services. Aviat Networks states that they are positioned to help operators successfully evolve their existing networks toward an all-IP broadband future, expand into untapped rural and remote markets, and capitalize on the explosive growth of mobile data traffic around the globe.

Talking to Microwave Journal, Shaun McFall, Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Aviat Networks, emphasised the company’s intentions to take the opportunity to move forward, saying, “We have carried the label of a legacy supplier in the past, but what we want to concentrate on now is what we have been working on for a number of years, which is IP networking in the wireless base. We are going to continue that work with our goal being for Aviat Networks to become synonymous with IP networking in wireless – both in backhaul and radio access.”

You can see our full write up of the briefing from our International Editor, Richard Mumford, here.

Shape Shifting Liquid Antennas

I am a little late in catching this story from Dec, but it is too interesting to pass up. Researchers at NC State published a potentially revolutionary technology for antenna design, liquid antennas. The antenna consists of liquid metal injected into elastomeric microchannels. The antennas can be deformed (twisted and bent) since the mechanical properties are dictated by the elastomer and not the metal. Creating shape-shifting antennas could open the door to a host of new uses in fields ranging from public safety to military applications.

The new antennas are made by injecting a eutectic alloy of Ga and In, which remains in liquid form at room temperature, into very small channels the width of a human hair. The channels are hollow with openings at either end but can be any shape. Once the alloy has filled the channel, the surface of the alloy oxidizes, creating a “skin” that holds the alloy in place while allowing it to retain its liquid properties.

For example, the researchers injected the alloy into elastic silicone channels, creating wirelike antennas that are incredibly resilient and that can be manipulated into a variety of shapes. Since the frequency is determined by the antennas size/shape, it can be tuned by stretching it.

Its durability and flexibility also open the door to a host of new applications. For example, an antenna in a flexible silicone shell could be used to monitor civil construction, such as bridges. As the bridge expands and contracts, it would stretch the antenna – changing the frequency of the antenna, and providing civil engineers information wirelessly about the condition of the bridge. This had become a priority issue as aging structures have failed in the recent past. There has also been a lot of work done to power the wireless devices with energy harvesting devices so they do not really need servicing.

Flexibility and durability are also ideal characteristics for military equipment, since the antenna could be folded or rolled up into a small package for deployment and then unfolded again without any impact on its function. These new applications are the most likely uses for the new antennas, since the alloy is more expensive than the copper typically used in most consumer electronics. So high performance or new applications could utilize this more expensive solution but maybe other liquid metals or alloys could reduce the cost in the future.

Dickey’s lab is performing further research under a National Science Foundation grant to better understand the alloy’s properties and means of utilizing it to create useful devices. The research, “Reversibly Deformable and Mechanically Tunable Fluidic Antennas,” is published in Advanced Functional Materials.

Google Nexus One - Skyworks, Qualcomm & BroadCom Winners

I love the group at ifixit.com who is always one of the first ones to buy new phones and tear it down to the chip level to see who is powering the guts of the latest phone. They did the Google Nexus One tear down last week and Qualcomm seemed to be a big winner with at least 3 chips including 2 processors and a power management chip.

For us RF geeks, Broadcom supplies an 802.11n WiFi chip giving the device high capacity WiFi access which is not enabled in the current iPhone. Skyworks is supplying the critical GSM power amp (SKY77336) and just announced this big win with a press release. They are also on the iPhone so they have been getting into the high profile phones. They are on the HTC reference design so this should get them into a lot of the Andriod based phones as HTC is manufacturing them for several companies. Looking at the Motorola Droid tear down; however, TriQuint and Avago are listed as the FEM chips.

The initial sales numbers for the Nexus One seem very minimal as it was kind of a soft launch. It seems the phone is primarily purchased online from Google with a T-mobile account or as a full priced unlocked phone. Google does not seem concerned with selling a large number of units but rather just showing off the capabilities of Android so that other manufacturers will emulate the phone in the way they think it should be done.

Do you think this strategy will pay off? Will any current handsets compete with the iPhone??

Keep that phone out of your trousers

De-Kun Li's new epidemiological study shows that extended exposure to weak magnetic fields as low as 1.6 mG (0.16 µT) can have negative effects on sperm quality, so says the results of a report published by Reproductive Toxicology.

"This is the first demonstration of a link between EMF exposure and the decline of semen quality," Li told Microwave News. The study, which was carried out in Shanghai, has important implications for overall fertility because approximately 40% of the Shanghai population is exposed to more than 1.6 mG for 2.4 hours on a daily basis.

The study, a collaboration with Chinese researchers, documented detrimental effects on a number of different indices of male fertility including semen morphology, motility, density and vitality. The effect on sperm quality follows a dose-response relationship: the longer the daily exposure above 1.6 mG, the greater the risk. Men who were exposed for more than six hours a day were three-to-four times more likely to have decreased fertility. The research team notes that the real risk is probably higher. "[S]ince everyone is exposed to some levels of magnetic fields, we did not have a totally 'unexposed' reference group in our study population. Therefore, the magnitude of the effect observed in this study is likely underestimated," they note.

They also comment that what they have seen is biologically "plausible" because experimental studies in China and Korea have shown that magnetic fields can affect the reproductive system of mice.

Li first announced this finding at a scientific conference a year ago last summer: see our post of July 3, 2008. Now the full details are available in the new paper. Li is with Kaiser Permanente in Oakland, CA.

Deleterious effects have now been shown for both power-frequency EMFs and RF/microwave radiation (see "Keep That Phone Out of Your Trouser Pocket!"). The same mechanism could be at work at both high and low frequencies," Li said.

Cell Phone Radiation Might Be Beneficial

Although there has been no conclusive evidence, there has been concerns for many years that cell phone radiation could cause cancer or have other negative effects on our body. But now researchers at Florida Alzheimer's Disease Research Centre (published in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease) have evidence that it could help protect us from Alzheimer's disease. The scientists found that phone radiation actually protected the memories of mice programmed to get Alzheimer's disease. They are now testing more frequencies to see if they can get better results.

Summary of BBC article linked above:
The study involved 96 mice, most of which had been genetically altered to develop beta-amyloid plaques in their brains, which are a marker of Alzheimer's disease, as they aged. The rest of the mice were non-demented. All the mice were exposed to the electro-magnetic field generated by a standard phone for two one-hour periods each day for seven to nine months.

The Alzheimer's mice performed as well on tests measuring memory and thinking skills as aged mice without dementia. If older Alzheimer's mice already showing memory problems were exposed to the electro-magnetic waves, their memory impairment disappeared.

The memory benefits of phone exposure took months to show up, suggesting that a similar effect in humans would take years. The researchers conclude that electro-magnetic field exposure could be an effective, non-invasive and drug-free way to prevent and treat Alzheimer's disease in humans.

Wow, something positive about RF radiation exposure. Maybe we should be buying cell phones with the highest SAR levels instead of the lowest. What do you think?

CES Show Projects Optimistic Electronics Market

Keeping an eye on the CES show, Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) President and CEO Gary Shapiro announced that the consumer electronics (CE) industry will generate more than $165 billion in U.S. shipment revenues this year, a slight increase from 2009, according to the semi-annual industry forecast released today.

“2009 is a year none of us wish to repeat and now we look forward to 2010. There is light at the end of the tunnel and it is the bright light of innovation,” said Shapiro. “We are seeing more innovation at this show than at any show in our history. There are a record number of new exhibitors, more than 330, among the 2,500 companies showcasing the next generation of technology.”

The CE industry will see positive revenue growth in 2010 after a revenue decline in 2009. Total industry shipment revenues fell an estimated 7.8 percent in 2009 although unit volume increased nearly ten percent for the year as consumers bought electronics at a value, limiting industry revenues. As the economy begins its slow recovery from the recession, the CE industry will lead the way as popular product categories are poised for growth in 2010.

The wireless handset category is expected to have a strong 2010, becoming the primary revenue driver for the industry. Smartphones continue to lead the way, generating nearly $17 billion in shipment revenue and more than 52 million unit sales in 2010. Smartphones comprise more than 30 percent of total wireless phone shipments, with that number increasing in the years ahead.

Sales of computers are also expected to be a bright spot in 2010 as the category continues to be driven by the popularity of netbooks. Netbook sales more than doubled in 2009 as the computer category showed stronger sales than previous forecasts predicted. In 2010, more than 30 million notebooks will be sold, generating more than $14 billion in revenue.

I think we will really see an expansion of more wireless devices as WiFi enabled printers, digital cameras and e-readers penetrate the market. I see TVs, video cameras and MP3 players being connected next as higher bandwidth connections become available which would be exciting to have all of our devices finally connected to each other.

I also think it will be a year where the connected home starts to develop for monitoring and controlling lights, appliances and HVAC as energy conservation continues to be a frontline issue. There are several iPhone apps that already enable this monitoring with appropriate hardware (I might have to get one now). There are many wireless technologies fighting to become the solution in this space which would include smart meter reading and monitoring (ZigBee, WiFi, Bluetooth, Z-wave, DECT, etc.).

What do you think will be the hot areas in Consumer Electronics this year?

Pat's Predictions for 2010

New for this year I have put together my predictions for 2010 for RF and microwave industry related topics. Some are conservative because they are based on recent events or articles and some are just things that I think might have a possibility of happening but the probability is relatively low. So here we go:

• The US Gov’t Broadband Initiative Stimulus money will be slow to come but even with the many hundreds of millions given out, it will have little or no affect on rural broadband access penetration (see our Oct 09 article on the Broadband Stimulus Program)


• LDMOS and GaN will gain major market share in the power product applications and become the leading materials for high power applications in their respective frequency sweet spots (see our June 09 article on the Power Brokers)


• We will see some control components integrated on GaN MMICs (i.e. switches, limiters, etc.)


• Nonlinear characterization advancements in the last couple of years will take hold in the marketplace as widely accepted techniques (X-parameters, S-functions, etc.)


• Several amplifiers with greater than 80% efficiency above 1 GHz will be developed as new high efficiency design techniques are exploited


• LTE will make large gains in deployments but not come close to exceeding WiMAX in the number of users (in 2011 I predict LTE will overtake WiMAX)


• SoC and SiP solutions will start to take hold in several applications where discrete solutions used to rule (WiFi, GPS, Bluetooth, etc.) - see our Feb 09 article on SoC/SiP


• Wireless HDTV products will be released into the mass market and one protocol will distance its self as the leading solution of the 4 vying for acceptance (see our Aug 09 article on Wireless HDTV)


• RFID will finally take off and see significant growth in multiple markets including front of the store (POS) applications


• As a result of the terrorists taping into our UAV video signals, new funding and significant resources will be spent on wireless encryption for the US military


• As a result of the failed terrorist attack on the Detroit bound plane, there will be renewed interest and purchases of mmWave and Terahertz body scanners for airport security


• As the military backs off the Future Combat Systems approach as being too expensive, advanced software defined radios will be demonstrated for near future systems


• Smart IED jammers will be developed that actively adapt to different frequencies via software control as IED attacks continue to dominate our attention (see our August 08 supplement article on IED Jammers)
  
• A new military broadband satellite communications program will be proposed to ease the capacity crunch for bandwidth (see our August 09 article on the SATCOM Capacity Crunch)

Let me know what you think will happen this year with your comments.

Renewed Interest in mmWave Body Scanners

With the recent terrorist attack on the flight heading to Detroit, there is a flurry of renewed priority to install scanners that can detect small amounts of explosives hidden on the body. There are two vying technologies for body scanning, low level back scatter x-ray and millimeter wave imaging. They have been slow to catch on due to the cost, speed and privacy concerns but with this new attack, the TSA is reportedly expediting the order for 300 new machines.

It appears 150 of these were already ordered from OSI Systems' Rapiscan unit which manufactures x-ray machines. From our industry's perspective, we hope many of these are mmWave body scanning machines which provide high resolution 3D images. Companies like L-3 would benefit from this increased buying if mmWave technology is used. There are still privacy concerns but the machines have softwave that can prevent abuse. We always seem to have to give up some privacy or rights to improve security.

What do you think - which technology is better? Do the privacy concerns out weigh the security risks??

Cyber Wars: Wireless Networks, Drones and Hacking

When the Wall Street Journal broke the story that Iraqi insurgents have been intercepting video communication signals from United States Predator drones over the last year, they characterized the actions as “the emergence of a shadow cyber war within the U.S.-led conflicts overseas.”

The truth is that cyber war has been the fifth warfare domain for some time, a new theater of war teeming with invisible enemies. The frequency and sophistication of cyber attacks is increasing daily, driven home by the insurgents’ wherewithal to both know that a $26 piece of pirating software could intercept these video signals (the Pentagon admits assuming local combatants wouldn’t know how to exploit the vulnerability), and actually pull it off.

Dale W. Meyerrose, head of Harris Corporation’s National Cyber Initiative and former Director of Command Control Systems at NORAD Headquarters, is quoted in Government Computer News that characterizing the incident as “hacking” is inaccurate; he likens it more to criminals intercepting police radio traffic than breaking into secure computer networks.

What is not being brought to light, is that whether or not the intercepted packet-based video was securely encrypted, the Iraqi insurgents potentially obtained location information about where the video is being sent – a much more severe disclosure than the targets of the surveillance.

Rajive Bagrodia, founder and president of Scalable Network Technologies, explains in a Defense Systems article that that “passive eavesdropping can be used to reveal the location of other network nodes, and the traffic pattern used to deduce other strategic information. If a wireless device is physically captured or hijacked, it risks revealing location information and packet contents while the rest of the network remains unaware. The most secure mobile wireless networks must therefore operate in a ‘trust but verify’ mode with every other peer node, and protect information, including routing information, at every layer of the network stack.”

However you spin it, the exposure of this year-long espionage shines a bright light on the severe vulnerability of wireless network transmissions—which the military is becoming more dependent upon in the larger shift to net-centric warfare. The specific ability to “eavesdrop” on drone-to-ground video transmissions, and what to do about it, was the subject of a demonstration conducted at this year’s I/ITSEC Conference by SNT of Los Angeles, CA. SNT has pioneered a new class of advanced network simulation and emulation tools called software virtual networks (SVNs) that are capable of rigorously vetting net-centric communication systems, particularly the most vulnerable domain of mobile wireless networks.

A recently article by Kevin Coleman in Defense Tech , Drone Video Hacks — The Cyber War Salvo , states that the military is scrambling to encrypt UAV video feeds in the wake of this disclosure. It further postulates that updating decade-old components will present a major encryption challenge to U.S. military technicians, and security needs to be built in, not bolted on later.

This is exactly the kind of wireless network and application engineering challenge that SVNs were created to overcome. First introduced in 2008, SVNs are exact digital replicas of physical networks in virtual space – indistinguishable from a real network. SVNs are based on emulation, which makes them able to interoperate with applications, devices, management tools, and people – at real time speed. SVNs emulate all of the layers in IP networks and can also emulate networks as large as thousands of nodes. This provides cyber security planners high fidelity results that are comparable to physical testing—but faster and at much lower cost. This in turn enables application developers and network engineers to do exactly as Mr. Coleman suggests – design security into the networks and applications themselves.

Courtesy of Camille Cox: camille@onrampcomm.com .

WiGig Alliance Completes Multi-gigabit Wireless Spec

The Wireless Gigabit Alliance (WiGig) is an organization advancing the adoption and widespread use of 60 GHz wireless technology worldwide. They recently announced the completion of a unified wireless specification that enables high performance wireless display and audio and provides data transfer rates more than 10 times faster than today’s wireless LANs, extending WiFi technology while supporting backward compatibility with existing WiFi devices. The completed specification is now ready for member review and is anticipated to be made available to WiGig adopter members in Q1 2010.

This is a nice setup where devices would use the higher throughput WiGig spec for short distance applications and automatically switch over to WiFi for longer distances. It could be used for wireless HDTV to eliminate wires including connections to other video sources. The beauty of the 60 GHz solutions is they are inherently short range due to the high absorption in air (oxygen molecules) so they will not interfere with other signals (and could be used for more secure military applications).

There are several standards vying for wireless HDTV applications such as lower frequency solutions like 802.11n/WHDI (5.8 GHz) and UWB (3.1 to 10.6 GHz) plus the higher frequency (60 GHz) solutions like WirelessHD, ECMA-387 and IEEE 802.15.3c. There was a nice article covering these different solutions in our August 2009 issue called “MM-waves in the Living Room: The Future of Wireless High Definition Multimedia.”

Which one do you think will win out and why???

Radio Heads Growing

I have read and seen a lot at trade show the changing demands of cost reduction and greater efficiency in cellular base station design are leading to a growing market for remote radio heads. According to a new study from ABI Research, this market is on track to exceed a value of $1 billion in 2014.

A basestation traditionally was made up of a rack of equipment with a long coaxial cable up to the antenna. This configuration is more expensive and has higher losses due the long cable up to he antenna. Remote radio heads are compact so they can be mounted right on the back of the antenna greatly reducing the losses. They are also less expensive and software controlled so they can be configured and updated remotely. Multiple heads can be attached for MIMO operation and controlled by a single basestation to further reduce costs while enabling higher capacity. They are becoming more important as WiMAX and LTE technologies are implemented that will utilize MIMO operation.

There is also the shift to IP based radios which makes the software portion of the radio even more important. The capacity of these radio systems is increasing quickly, and I see nice solutions from suppliers such as Dragonwave, Ceragon, Harris Stratex, Exalt and more at every trade show. This trend enables more complicated but higher throughput technologies such as adaptive modulation. For more on this subject read our Expert Advice this month by Greg Friesen from DragonWave.

All these changes in the radio implementations will affect the type of demand for components and software as this shift continues. Suppliers will need to improve device efficiency, reduce component size and improve reliability as servicing these heads is more difficult than traditional basestations. Typically discrete devices are used so future integration of multiple functions will reduces costs and improve reliability.

Have you experienced this change in demand at the component level? Has it changed the demands on antenna performance??

How Designers Search

The results of a survey by a trade journal serving the Integrated Circuit market on “How Designers Search – Survey Results.” offered some interesting food for thought. The information was gleaned from the 185 managers, engineers and programmers working in commercial or military sectors out of 443 respondents to a survey sent to eg3.com’s 43,000-plus subscriber list.

The survey attempted to determine how engineers and programmers search for information on technology, what types of content they were seeking, and how they went about finding it. As might be expected, search engines ranked high and were used by engineers, virtually all the time, with Google leading the pack, followed by Yahoo (a distant second) and Microsoft’s Bing.

The survey results also provided insight into how engineers use these search engines. Not surprisingly, most engineers do not give up after the first page of links, but go deep into the result pages. In fact, almost 40% “often” or “always” go as far as Page 10 on their searches. This makes sense for people working in highly technical and specialized fields and represents one flaw in general search engines such as Google. Since they serve the general public, specialized content is easily buried. I know this to be true from my own research efforts, which can often require going far into the Google results. I wouldn’t be surprised if the problem gets much worse before we start seeing a backlash and a shift in the use of search technology and introduction of alternative products/services.

Beyond search engines, online media was ranked as a very good source of information to the engineering community, while emails and newsletters were also highly regarded. Perhaps online media should be ranked as the highest source of information, since search engines ultimately just redirect engineers to these sites anyways.

Social media as a source of information is growing slowly but currently ranked low enough among the survey takers to make some people conclude that social media is greatly overhyped for distributing information. I have a different opinion. I have just recently started using Twitter, Linked-in and Facebook to distribute information that I find useful and assume others will to. If e-mailing a good article to colleagues is common among engineers (which according to the survey, it is), then I believe social media will be adopted for a similar purpose in much greater numbers in 2010. Instead of forwarding an article and listing all the recipients' e-mail addresses, I can forward an article in two mouse clicks via Twitter and cover all the people who follow my Tweets. Think of it as a recommendation service - "As someone working in the microwave/wireless field I found this interesting and think you will to". Its like a custom ad-hoc newsletter. We have just implemented this share capability (Twitter, Linked-in,.. ) on the Microwave Journal web site, and I hope many of you take advantage of it. Engineers may not necessarily be first adaptors but once they discover a time-saving tool, watch out.


The survey found trade shows and print publications still popular but significantly behind search engines for research. This also makes sense. Print has many great qualities, providing a unique, tactile reader experience that the web cannot deliver, although hyper-linking isn’t one of them. I also know that many of our print subscribers hold on to their copies for many months or pass them around the office. This information educates many engineers before they ever go online and fire up the search engine.

In the “What do Designers Want” category, ‘hands-on’ items such as demos, software and evaluation kits rank very highly. On the flip side, vendor articles and webinars ranked moderately low and podcasts very low in response to a “What Information do you seek” question. I found thess results very surprising and perhaps weighted by an abundance of self-promoting, marketing focused articles appearing elsewhere on the web. I know these are a big turn-off for technical people, looking for information to get their jobs done.

Looking at the attendance of MWJ/Besser webinars and download rates of vendor white papers, which remain quite high, I believe the continued popularity of both is testament to the quality of information (and self-restraint) that the marketing people in our industry have shown when developing and presenting information about their technologies and products.

If we can do more to help you find what you need, feel free to comment. The suggestion box is open.

WiMAX Growing Quickly as LTE Looms Large

ABI Research just released a report that mobile WiMAX subscribers will be about 2 million strong by the end of 2009 this month. They state that Clearwire in the United States has already declared 173,000 subscribers, Yota in Russia has been growing at a decent rate reaching 100,000 subscribers in August and 200,000 in October, and PacketOne in Malaysia has reached 130,000 subscribers.

Plus we have UQ Communications that expected to reach 300,000 subscribers by the end of 2009, but is behind schedule in its rollout and will fall short of that initial target. South Korea has seen KT’s and SKT's subscriber numbers remain fairly stagnant, while these service providers prepare for another big push as a third WiMAX service provider comes to South Korea.

This handful of WiMAX service providers alone will account for a significant minority of the nearly two million mobile WiMAX subscribers expected by the end of 2009.

I have read a lot about South Korea's outstanding mobile WiMAX network that works well even throughout its underground subway. They have fast data rates and low drop out rates with a multitude of applications available. They boast the highest broadband household penetration rate of 95% as referenced in our Oct cover story on the US Broadband Initiative (compared to the US rate of 60%).

ABI's practice director Philip Solis says "Mobile WiMAX service providers around the world find themselves in very different situations". Some are mainly focused on fixed services for homes and businesses, while others are jumping feet first into mobile WiMAX, offering a variety of external modems, laptops, netbooks and even handsets tied into HD multimedia services, as with Yota in Russia. Some have little fixed or mobile broadband competition, while others are competing directly against fixed and mobile broadband services.

"Some, such as Japan's UQ Communications, are behind their buildout schedules and subscriber expectations, while others such are Clearwire are increasing the pace of their deployments because of more-than-adequate funding. Still others such as Yota in Russia are exceeding all expectations. Some are remaining local, while others, such as Clearwire and Yota, are building networks in more than one country."

Just as the mobile WiMAX market is starting to bloom, LTE networks from early movers such as Verizon Wireless and NTT DoCoMo are targeting the same potential customers. The LTE ecosystem will eventually be vastly larger than the mobile WiMAX ecosystem, but just as LTE deployments start picking up in 2011 and 2012, some 802.16e service providers will begin upgrading their networks to 802.16m.

How soon do you see LTE taking over the lead over WiMAX for subscribers? I think it will be a couple of years but it will happen. They both have their place depending on the application and location so I don't think one is always better than the other.

SA Says GaAs Evolving to Stave Off Si Challenge

Strategy Analytics reports that the GaAs industry is creating innovations designed to stave off the dual challenges of integration and low-cost silicon technologies. Newer BiFET and BiHEMT processes will enable GaAs device manufacturers to integrate HBT power amplifiers onto a single die with HEMT-based switches and other functions. Meanwhile, the use of optical lithography for production of smaller geometry processes will enable more cost-effective production of millimeter-wave ICs. But HBT and HEMT processes will continue to underpin the commercial market for GaAs devices which will be worth $4 - $5 billion by 2013, as stated in the latest Strategy Analytics study.

“BiFET and BiHEMT technologies will enable the development of a future class of products, providing integrated solutions that retain the industry-leading performance offered by GaAs and necessary for next-generation wireless markets,” noted Steve Entwistle, VP of Strategy Analytics’ Strategic Technologies Practice.

“GaAs is still erroneously perceived by many as an exotic, expensive technology,” said Asif Anwar, Director of the Strategy Analytics GaAs and Compound Semiconductor Technologies Service. “The reality is that GaAs technologies continue to meet the requirements from cost-sensitive markets, such as cellular handsets and is the most cost-effective technology for markets that require millimeter-wave performance.”

Mr. Anwar concluded, “The application of optical lithography for millimeter-wave IC production will significantly enhance the cost-effectiveness of GaAs compared to silicon technology-based offerings, while retaining the benefits of performance and faster time-to-market.”

How much progression do you think GaAs BiFET and BiHEMT processes are making to fend off Si improvements in integration and lower cost?

Keithley Sells RF Product Line to Agilent

Big news yesterday in the RF test and measurement world as Agilent agreed to purchase all of Keithley's RF test product line. It appears that these products were not profitable for Keithley in the short-term so they were turned into cash as they expect to receive proceeds of approximately $9 M and to realize a pre-tax gain in the range of $2.5 to $3.5 M during its first quarter (ending this year) as a result of the sale. It also seems that all workers at the Santa Rosa design center have been offered jobs with Agilent’s Santa Rosa-based Electronic Measurement Group as the Keithley location on Aviation Boulevard will become an Agilent facility next month which is good news for the employees. The official news item is linked above.

On the final day of the M2M Business Exchange in Brussels the issue of mHealth was brought into focus in a number of presentations (*listed below) covering issues such as standardisation, reimbursement, user acceptance, mHealth communities and aiding healthcare in developing countries.

At the end of the session Chair, Marc Sauter, director of strategy at Cinterion Wireless, summarised the key points that had been raised and highlighted the challenges that need to be addressed.

He began, “The sessions offered a comprehensive and detailed overview of the mHealth market from a number of different angles. What is clear is that we have a complex eco-system and value chain in the healthcare market, which, as has been demonstrated throughout this conference, is reflected throughout the entire M2M market.

“A key issue is the standardisation process, which is crucial for the success of mobile health. But since the official standardisation is struggling the likelihood is that standards will increasingly be developed by companies. As was mentioned[1] Microsoft, Intel, General Electric and others are active here.”

Another issue raised was the channels for reimbursement for mHealth services with the example given that if a patient receives a service via telemonitoring there can be a different means of reimbursement from the health service or insurance company than if that patient had visited the doctor in person, although the service was comparable.

Sauter then maintained that the ease of use and functionality of devices will determine user acceptance. He said, “This is particularly pertinent in the mHealth sector where often the users are elderly people or very young people who are not familiar with the latest technologies. We have to take that into consideration when designing devices. Also, as has been said several times during this conference, with regards to user acceptance a question that always has to be asked is: can you trust the system?

Also discussed was the creation of mHealth communities in cities, regions and provinces whereby all the players work together to share data, share information and their experiences and create a unique, tailored service.

With regards to the development and implementation of mHealth technology he referred to a presentation[2], which raised a number of issues. These included defining the set of data that needs to be monitored. In particular it is crucial at the beginning to get this definition right in order to get the right diagnosis. Then there has to be acceptance of the device and the system, alongside data security and privacy and the definition of guidelines and processes on how to use and implement the technology. And as commercial companies developing systems and providing services need to make money, business cases need to be developed.

Sauter commented, “The M2M technology is there. We have cellular/platforms, mobile operators[3] say they have services in place and we have service providers offering services today. But we have to be more informative so that the end users and doctors know what to do with it.”

With regards to implementation, specific mHealth projects[4] are already in operation with encouraging results. Sauter commented, “Such projects show just what the potential is for mHealth and I think it should encourage us to go further down the line.”

He continued, “It was made clear in presentations that the eco-system will develop. The younger generation of doctors and patients will emerge that are used to playing around with iPhones and other devices, that will enable them to better adopt new technologies. New healthcare patterns will emerge.

“mHealth is not just about the health monitoring of patients but can also assist in healthier and more comfortable living[5]. It has a role to play in staying fit and can offer piece of mind too. Telemonitoring can also provide health information to doctors about patients in their own environment without the stress of travel, waiting in surgeries etc, and provide more accurate data, leading to better treatment.”

In a global context the issue of bringing better healthcare to developing countries was raised[6]. Examples were given whereby mobile phone services or applications of the phone can help to improve the healthcare situation. Here, GSM, GPRS and HSPA technologies are all being utilised for mHealth applications.

Summing up Sauter said, “The mHealth revolution is going to be very significant and a huge market. We all need to work hard to develop this market to its full potential.”

*Presentations
1. mHealth initiative – introducing the mHealth revolution and its impact on healthcare strategies, Peter Waegemann, executive director, mHealth Initiative
2. Examining the latest technology for monitoring the elderly, ill or disabled, Maurice Zembra, general manager, Medical Data Transfer
3. mHealth – new business perspectives for mobile operators, Marc Sauter, director of strategy, Cinterion Wireless
4. Understanding how Virga Jessa Hospital in Hasselt, in collaboration with Belgium Social Security has developed a monitoring strategy for patients with chronic diseases, Prof. Paul Dendale, cardiologist, Heart Centre Hasselt, Belgium
5. How can mobile technology support remote diagnostic measures and how can it support the boom of elders who want to prolong the good life at home?, Bjorn Tellefsen, director M2M, Devoteam Telecom
6. Examining Vodafone’s role in founding the mHealth initiative, Caroline Dewing, external relations, Vodafone Group

Richard Mumford