Forecast for Smartphone Market and Chips

Forward Concepts has announced a new study of the worldwide Smartphone market and the key chips that enable them. The study, "Smartphone Device & Chip Market Opportunities '10" covers the top 24 Smartphone vendors and their 2009 market shares and change from 2008. It also provides dozens of detailed forecasts by global region and air interface technology for each through 2014 of Smartphones, key chips that enable them and operating systems.

Some of the key findings are:

· Smartphone shipments worldwide grew 18% in 2009 to 171 million units at a $67 billion level, providing bright market opportunities for both handset and chip vendors in the current economy. The Smartphone semiconductor and display revenue also covered in the report reached $11.7 billion.

· With the economy expected to continue improving, they forecast a compound annual growth rate of 24% for Smartphones to the 496 million unit level in 2014.

· Nokia continues to be the leader in Smartphone shipments, with an estimated 2009 market share of 36.4%, followed by RIM at 19.4%, Apple at 14.9% and HTC at 6.3%. Sharp follows with a 3.5% market share, then Samsung at 3.4%. 18 other Smartphone vendors constitute the remaining 20% share.

· Western Europe has overtaken Japan to be the leader in Smartphone consumption, with a 23% 2009 market share. However, thanks to the iPhone and the introduction of Android phones, North America is forecast to become the leading Smartphone market in 2010, with a forecasted 22% share, closely followed by Western Europe at 21.6%, and fast-growing China at 17%.

· Symbian continues to be the leading Smartphone operating system, with an estimated 43% unit market share in 2009, while RIM's Blackberry O/S and Apple's O/S X has supplanted Microsoft Windows Mobile for the #2 and #3 positions; RIM with an estimated 19% share and O/S X with 15%. Windows Mobile had a 13% share while Linux variants, including Android, reached 8%, followed by, Palm’s WebOS with 2%. Although Symbian is expected to remain dominant, we predict that Android will grow to the #2 position, followed by O/S X in 2014.

On author said that 2009 was the year of Smartphone applications, with Apple’s leading App Store having reached 140,000 applications. All major O/S vendors have followed suit, especially Nokia with its own Ovi initiative. Mobile Internet uptake also remained strong during the year, posting a 29% YoY growth, reaching 500 million subscribers.

This forecast is a good follow on to the previous post on ABI's handset shipments report for last quarter. You would never know if in the US but Nokia and their platform still dominate the world of handsets. It will be interesting to see how fast Andriod based smartphones are adopted by the market and how that affects the iPhone market share.