Happy 50th to the Integrated Circuit Patent

On this day (February 6th) in 1959, Jack Kilby (November 8, 1923 - June 20, 2005) filed a patent for a "Solid Circuit made of Germanium", the first integrated circuit. Along with Robert Noyce (who independently made a similar circuit a few months later), Kilby is generally credited as co-inventor of the integrated circuit. He was a Nobel Prize laureate in physics in 2000 for his invention of the integrated circuit.

The transistor, invented at Bell Labs in 1947 had stimulated engineers to design ever more complex electronic circuits and equipment containing hundreds or thousands of discrete components such as transistors, diodes, rectifiers and capacitors. But the problem was that these components still had to be interconnected to form electronic circuits, and hand-soldering thousands of components to thousands of bits of wire was expensive and time-consuming. It was also unreliable; every soldered joint was a potential source of trouble, complex circuit designs were hampered by the unreliability of using numerous discrete devices. This problem was commonly called the "tyranny of numbers".

Texas Instruments (TI) was working on this issue via the Micro-Module program when Kilby joined the company in 1958. In mid-1958, Kilby finally came to the conclusion that this approach would not work and that manufacturing the circuit components in mass in a single piece of semiconductor material could provide a solution.

On September 12 he presented his findings to the management, which included Mark Shepherd, of Texas Instruments: he showed them a sliver of germanium, with protruding wires, glued to a glass slide. It was a relatively simple device that Jack Kilby showed to a handful of co-workers gathered in TI’s semiconductor lab — only a transistor and other components on a slice of germanium, but when Kilby pressed the switch, an unending sine curve undulated across the oscilloscope screen.



In addition to the integrated circuit, Kilby also is noted for patenting the electronic portable calculator and the thermal printer used in data terminals. In total, he held about 60 patents.

Appropriately enough for the occasion of this anniversary, the International Solid-State Circuits Conference, the foremost forum for presentation of advances in solid-state circuits and systems-on-a-chip runs next week from February 8th to the 12th in San Fransisco. Of particular interest to our industry will be sessions held on Radios for health services; Things all RFIC designers should know (but are afraid to ask); RF building blocks; Wireless connectivity; mm-wave devices and a forum on 4G front-ends.

The advance program is available at:

http://www.isscc.org/isscc/2009/advprog.pdf

Wireless Charging Coming This Year

While I did not attend CES 2009, one of the hot emerging products was wireless charging. Powermat was there showing off its family of charging mats (using inductive coupling) for mobile devices like cell phones, PDAs, etc. They are very efficient (like 93%) so charging is relatively fast and they should be available soon (maybe Q2 this year). These mats would would cost about $100 so they are reasonably priced for a first to market, high tech product.

Fulton is taking a different approach with their wireless charging technology dubbed eCoupled. They are working with large consumer product companies to integrate their product into various consumer applications including automobiles where you could sit your device in a box in the dashboard of your car for charging.

Leggett & Platt is part of the Fulton Partnership and was displaying a system that it says is more flexible than others. It can charge larger devices, with power tools being an early target market. Image shelves that you could set your power tools on that would charge them automatically or having you kitchen counter top capable of charging your blender, toaster, etc. There could come a day when we have no more power outlets in our home, just walls that inductively charge our electronics and run our lights, appliancies, etc.

One big application is TV sets and with wireless HD starting to evolve (there are currently 3 different standards), there would be no need for wires on your nice new flat screen HDTV. That would really simplify mounting them to a wall with wireless power and have your set top box transmit wireless HD signals to it. We might finally be able to use our high tech toys without wires!

Eight is Enough?

Gartner, Inc. has identified eight mobile technologies that will evolve significantly through 2010, impacting short-term mobile strategies and policies.

“All mobile strategies embed assumptions about technology evolution so it’s important to identify the technologies that will evolve quickly in the life span of each strategy,” said Nick Jones, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “The eight mobile technologies that we have pinpointed as ones to watch in 2009 and 2010 will have broad effects and, as such, are likely to pose issues to be addressed by short-term strategies and policies.”

Gartner’s eight mobile technologies to watch in 2009 and 2010

Bluetooth 3.0 —The Bluetooth 3.0 specification will be released in 2009 (at which point its feature set will be frozen), with devices starting to arrive around 2010. Bluetooth 3.0 will likely include features such as ultra-low-power mode that will enable new devices, such as peripherals and sensors, and new applications, such as health monitoring. Bluetooth originated as a set of protocols operating over a single wireless bearer technology. Bluetooth 3.0 is intended to support three bearers: "classic" Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and ultrawideband (UWB). It's possible that more bearers will be supported in the future. Wi-Fi is likely to be a more important supplementary bearer than UWB in the short term, because of its broad availability. Wi-Fi will allow high-end phones to rapidly transfer large volumes of data.

Mobile User Interfaces (UIs) — UIs have a major effect on device usability and supportability. They will also be an area of intense competition in 2009 and 2010, with manufacturers using UIs to differentiate their handsets and platforms. New and more-diverse UIs will complicate the development and support of business-to-employee (B2E) and business-to-consumer (B2C) applications. Organizations should expect more user demands for support of specific device models driven by interface preferences. Companies should also expect consumer interfaces to drive new expectations of application behavior and performance. Better interfaces will make the mobile Web more accessible on small devices, and will be a better channel to customers and employees.

Location Sensing — Location awareness makes mobile applications more powerful and useful; in the future, location will be a key component of contextual applications. Location sensing will also enhance systems, such as mobile presence and mobile social networking. The growing maturity of on-campus location sensing using Wi-Fi opens up a range of new applications exploiting the location of equipment or people. Organizations delivering business or consumer applications should explore the potential of location sensing; however, exploiting it may create new privacy and security challenges.

802.11n — 802.11n boosts Wi-Fi data rates to between 100 Mbps and 300 Mbps, and the multiple-input, multiple-output technology used by 802.11n offers the potential for better coverage in some situations. 802.11n is likely to be a long-lived standard that will define Wi-Fi performance for several years. High-speed Wi-Fi is desirable to stream media around the home and office. From an organizational perspective, 802.11n is disruptive; it's complex to configure, and is a "rip and replace" technology that requires new access points, new client wireless interfaces, new backbone networks and a new power over Ethernet standard. However, 802.11n is the first Wi-Fi technology to offer performance on a par with the 100 Mbps Ethernet commonly used for wired connections to office PCs. It is, therefore, an enabler for the all-wireless office, and should be considered by companies equipping new offices or replacing older 802.11a/b/g systems in 2009 and 2010.

Display Technologies — Displays constrain many characteristics of both mobile devices and applications. During 2009 and 2010, several new display technologies will impact the marketplace, including active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors. Pico projectors enable new mobile use cases (for example, instant presentations projected on a desktop to display information in a brief, face-to-face sales meeting). Battery life improvements are welcome for any user. Good off-axis viewing enables images and information to be shared more easily. Passive displays in devices, such as e-book readers, offer new ways to distribute and consume documents. Display technology will also become an important differentiator and a user selection criterion.

Mobile Web and Widgets — The mobile Web is emerging as a low-cost way to deliver simple mobile applications to a range of devices. It has some limitations that will not be addressed by 2010 (for example, there will be no universal standards for browser access to handset services, such as the camera or GPS). However, the mobile Web offers a compelling total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage over thick-client applications. Widgets (small mobile Web applets) are supported by many mobile browsers, and provide a way to stream simple feeds to handsets and small screens. Mobile Web applications will be a part of most B2C mobile strategies. Thin-client applications are also emerging as a practical solution to on-campus enterprise applications using Wi-Fi or cellular connections.

Cellular Broadband — Wireless broadband exploded in 2008, driven by the availability of technologies such as high-speed downlink packet access and high-speed uplink packet access, combined with attractive pricing from cellular operators. The performance of high-speed packet access (HSPA) provides a megabit or two of bandwidth in uplink and downlink directions, and often more. In many regions, HSPA provides adequate connectivity to replace Wi-Fi "hot spots," and the availability of mature chipsets enables organizations to purchase laptops with built-in cellular modules that provide superior performance to add-on cards or dongles.

Near Field Communication (NFC) — NFC provides a simple and secure way for handsets to communicate over distances of a centimeter or two. NFC is emerging as a leading standard for applications such as mobile payment, with successful trials conducted in several countries. It also has wider applications, such as "touch to exchange information" (for example, to transfer an image from a handset to a digital photo frame, or for a handset to pick up a virtual discount voucher). Gartner does not expect much of the NFC payment or other activities to become common, even by 2010, in mature markets, such as Western Europe and the U.S. NFC is likely to become important sooner in emerging markets, with some deployments starting by 2010.
Additional information is available in the Gartner report “Eight Mobile Technologies to Watch in 2009 and 2010.” The report is available on Gartner’s Web site at http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=828612&subref=simplesearch.

Mr. Jones will provide additional analysis on the mobile and wireless scenario for 2009 and beyond at the Gartner Wireless & Mobile Summit taking place February 23-25 in Chicago. This Summit offers new concepts and best practices to increase ROI on wireless investment, insights on the future of wireless, and unbiased perspectives on devices, systems, integration and the latest trends. Gartner analysts and solution providers will help unravel the tangle of multiple generations of wireless technologies, evaluate new approaches to teleworking, assess the role of core technologies such as MIDs, RFID, and IP telephony and make sense of the looming platform battles for smartphones, and more. Additional information is available at www.gartner.com/us/wireless. Members of the media can register to attend the Summit by contacting Christy.pettey@gartner.com.

In Pursuit of Government Stimulus Dollars

While sales in technology have gotten off to a slow start this year, government spending may be the best hope for many in the communications industry. Federal spending by the US government is expected to be about $80.6 billion on information technology products and services this year, according to a December study released by Compass Intelligence. According to the report this is a 5.5% increase over last year. The report also noted that spending on software applications will be the fastest-growing segment, with an annual growth between 8.6% and 9.8%. Stephanie Atkinson, managing partner and principal analyst at Compass Intelligence offered the following tips when it comes to marketing to government agencies.

1. Register with the government. You can’t sell anything to a government entity without signing up in the Central Contractor Registration database (CCR.gov). But before you can do this, you’ll need a DUNS Number, a unique number assigned by Dun & Bradstreet Inc. Once you’re signed up, make your status known in e-mail marketing as well as paid search results. In fact, consider adding a new e-mail segment so you can disseminate government-specific deals and services.

2. Focus on the short-term return. Even though governments and government agencies are still spending, they must get approval and, most important, answer to constituents regarding their spending. Projects that show a quick ROI are most likely to happen first, since good ROI makes for good press, Atkinson said. This is where a strong, short-term case study or video customer testimonial can really help, she added.

3. Offer different purchase options. “In the past you bought equipment and paid a monthly services fee. Now we’re seeing monthly costs that include some of the equipment costs,” she said. Either way, be prepared to wait to get paid, Atkinson said, since government contract pay terms are definitely longer than your typical net 45 or net 60. “It’s very likely to see three- or six-month payment terms,” she said.

4. Consider marketing yourself as a subcontractor. There are plenty of companies already registered with the government that are getting contracts but may not have in-house expertise or products like the ones you sell. There are several sites that list the best sources to find such companies, and several firms that broker such partnerships, including FedSources, GovernmentBids.com, FindRFP, and BidNet. Sites like GovCB.com let you advertise your company by posting a vendor profile so other companies can seek you out.

Star Trek Cloaking Device Becoming a Reality?

Metamaterials are a hot subject in microwave technology these days. Much of the work I see is going on with the design of antenna structures or substrate materials, but the researchers at Duke University have designed and tested a microwave cloaking device that can almost completely "hide" a small structure from microwaves. While this is not new news, they have more recent work going on to apply this technology to sound waves.

The Duke cloaking device is a structure made up of copper rings and wires patterned on a fiberglass composite. The structure is designed to route the microwaves around the hidden object inside and greatly reduces it reflection and shadow. The Duke team developed a small cloak (less than five inches across) that would provide invisibility in two dimensions, rather than three to simplify the design and prove out the concept. The cloak includes strips of metamaterial fashioned into concentric two-dimensional rings, a design that allows its use with a narrow beam of microwave radiation. The precise variations in the shape of copper elements patterned onto their surfaces determine their electromagnetic properties. The cloak design is unique among metamaterials in its circular geometry and internal structural variation, the researchers said. Up until that time all other metamaterials had been based on a cubic, or gridlike, design, and most of them have electromagnetic properties that are uniform throughout.

The researchers set out to prove the concept by aiming a microwave beam at a cloak positioned between two metal plates inside a test chamber, and used a detecting apparatus to measure the electromagnetic fields that developed both inside and outside the cloak. They first show a beam of microwaves hitting a 2 inch metal cylinder and then hide the cylinder within the cloaking structure. By examining an animated representation of the data, they found that the wave fronts of the beam separate and flow around the center of the cloak. Here is a video that demonstrates it:



So the Rumulans may have arrived on Earth but we may not be able to see them. What other interesting work have you seen using metamaterials???

Pulsed RF Power Devices Expected to Show Solid Growth

So let's get to some good economic news. ABI research is saying that markets for pulsed RF power devices below 4 GHz are expected to show continued solid growth over the next five years despite the current economic turmoil. While the volatility of many global electronics markets is fueled by their association with consumer spending, markets for pulsed RF power devices are supported by quite different priorities.

“Many RF power semiconductor manufacturers are on a quest to find markets unrelated to mobile wireless infrastructure,” notes ABI Research director Lance Wilson. “Device prices in wireless infrastructure are falling, and the total available market is shrinking.”

Some markets that use pulsed RF power devices, such as the transportation safety market and the military market, are seeing good solid growth even in the midst of today’s economic downturn. These devices are used in radars for military and marine applications, and in a worldwide upgrade of the air traffic control system that is now occurring. There is also a market segment devoted to the avionics transponder and air navigation market, which is also lifted by the air traffic control upgrade.

I know there are several companies going after the air traffic control system upgrade and I think this is a necessary upgrade that should provide sizable contracts for many suppliers in the years to come.

Keynesian Economics and the Communications Industry

John Maynard Keynes, (June 5, 1883 – April 21, 1946) was a British economist whose ideas, called Keynesian economics, have had a major impact on modern economic and political theory as well as on many governments' fiscal policies. He advocated interventionist government policy, by which the government would use fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of economic recessions, depressions and booms. Should government spending extend to communication and the microwave industry?

As the US and the Obama administration look to short-term fiscal stimulus of the lagging economy, the idea of improving rural access to broadband telecommunications appears to be a worthy investment in the country’s information infrastructure and a reasonable economic stimulus project.

"The Rural Broadband Initiative: Deploying Next-Generation Broadband Service to Rural America," a white paper from Ball State's Digital Policy Institute (DPI), recommends funding broadband deployment by providing short term funding to existing rural telephone companies who then provide broadband service to rural areas.

There are significant, and widely agreed upon benefits of extending broadband technology. These include economic development, reduced costs of government services and improved quality of life. Today over 4 million U.S. households, primarily in rural areas, have no access to affordable broadband infrastructure.

The Universal Service Fund (USF) provides annual funding to local telephone companies in rural areas to offset the high cost of telephone service. But, even with this funding, rural areas have continued to lag behind, primarily in necessary network upgrades that permit rural residents to also interact with web 2.0 applications.

In each of the past two months the U.S. economy has shed more than 500,000 jobs. The Obama administration is attempting to craft a fiscal stimulus package that will simultaneously provide short-term stimulus – hopefully by the end of winter – and long-term infrastructure enhancements. Improving the nations’ telecommunications network is a significant part of this stimulus plan.

It was no surprise to industry insiders that Ball State was able to craft this plan. The university was one of the first institutions to pioneer WiMAX testing in the United States, and it recently announced a $17.7 million Emerging Media Initiative, establishing Ball State as a leader in the emerging media industry.

Unfortunately, any new plan that requires identification of needs and creation of a funding mechanism will require many months, if not years to implement. Even for worthy projects, the delay is too long to provide fiscal stimulus in 2009.

This proposal would provide next-generation broadband service to roughly 5.9 million access sites in the United States. This would create more than 200,000 jobs – in manufacturing of fiber optics and other telecommunications equipment, construction, engineering, installation of fiber optic networks and customer premise equipment. This would account for roughly 7 percent of the jobs envisioned under the stimulus plan, at a cost of about $28 billion or just 3.5 percent of the total cost. This is among the most efficient of the stimulus package elements. In addition and perhaps most importantly, this program would create jobs almost immediately upon start-up. Ball State's proposal is fast, will create jobs by mid-March and provides millions of Americans access to our most fundamental technologies of the 21st century.

Using the existing USF mechanism for identifying rural regions, this plan bypasses both the Federal and State bureaucracies and goes directly to the private sector companies who buy fiber optic line (made in America), construction equipment (made in America) and hire workers to install fiber optic lines. These private sector companies will scramble to create these new jobs because their profitability is enhanced by providing broadband services.

Meanwhile in Europe - On Thursday (Jan. 29th), the UK’s first communications minister, Lord Stephen Carter, published the much anticipated report: Digital Britain. It portrays the sector as a ray of hope in an otherwise bleak economy and proposes 22 recommendations to make the digital network the backbone of our economy in the same way that roads and railways have been in the past. All well intended, but severely lacking in the detail.

Britain is set to suffer the worst recession of any advanced nation, as such any measures designed to stimulate sectors of the economy must be timely and credible. It means taking the right long term decisions now to secure a competitive future. Governments face a choice now to move away from a reliance on the financial sector and make the broadband network the backbone of our economy in the same way that roads and railways have been in the past. Governments and policy makers can do this through creating and fostering a dependency on the services that these networks can provide.

In this respect the UK is already behind other countries both in Europe and the rest of the world. Elsewhere governments have launched national broadband tenders and committed to the direct financing of fibre roll outs. Digital Britain (perhaps unfairly) is seen as the UK’s answer to an Obama stimulus package but on seeing the interim report the UK is at risk of substituting action for yet more reports. No fewer than eight new reports will come out of Lord Carter’s initiative with responsibility spanning across three institutions – DCMS, BERR and Ofcom. The government must ensure that Digital Britain doesn’t become merely a series of reviews, reports and consultations.

Important key roadblocks have been acknowledged such as the delay to spectrum re-farming. Promisingly a new Wireless Spectrum Modernization Program seeks to address these delays and if a voluntary solution amongst operators does not emerge then a government imposed resolution could unfold. This is a crucial action point that should be prioritized. Without these spectrum reforms the deployment of mobile broadband is unlikely to become a reality. This has far reaching implications for the ubiquity of broadband since it is hard to define a new universal service obligation until such spectrum issues are resolved. And these aren’t the only barriers to such reforms.

Promising a universal service obligation for broadband by 2012 is an ambitious target with far reaching implications. Before making any such revisions, the UK must work with the European Commission to modify the current Universal Service Directive – an activity that is currently underway – but one that has been delayed for some time now. Given the progress to date it’s hard to see the situation in Europe changing before the final report due later this summer.

Sprint continues to struggle

Sprint announced plans to eliminate 8,000 positions by the end of the current quarter--in an effort to trim $1.2 billion in internal and external labor costs. The job cuts were intended to make its cost structure more competitive in the industry and keep the company fiscally secure in the current economic downturn.

While many companies are trying to cut costs during the recession, wireless is one of the few areas where most operators don’t appear to be struggling. Sprint has the double misfortune of facing not only a bad economic climate but the task of simultaneously trying to rebuild its reputation and business among customers, said Jeff Kagan, an independent wireless analyst. “We have seen wireless competitors like Verizon and AT&T continue to do pretty well during this weak economy, but Sprint has continued to lose customers and struggle.”

In the third quarter, Sprint reported net customer losses of 1.3 million, adding to the tally of customers fleeing for other operators. Sprint’s customer base has shrunk 6.3% in the last year, while the industry overall has grown 7%. Meanwhile Sprint’s operational costs have remained fixed as it maintains a network, sales and customer care operation intended to support a much larger customer base.

The biggest concern for Sprint right now, Moffett added, must be the viability of its Nextel iDEN network, which Sprint recently tried to revive. If Sprint can’t reverse customer losses on the iDEN network, it could move from being a cash-generating network to a cash-losing one, compounding Sprint’s problems. “If the volumes on the iDEN network are no longer sufficient to support Nextel, then the hole Sprint is in will be much deeper than we thought.”, said Craig Moffett, senior analyst with Bernstein Research.

Some Cuts Announced

As with many other industries, the electronics market is suffering from the downturn and several companies have announced layoffs. STMicroelectronics has outlined a major cost-cutting effort, including a plan to shed 4,500 jobs. In total, STMicroelectronics (Geneva) plans to reduce its costs by over $700 million in 2009. The actions are focused on ''resizing'' the company's manufacturing operations and streamlining expenses. The company - which issued a recent warning about Q4 - also reported sales of $2.276 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to $2.696 billion in the third period and $2.742 billion in the like period a year ago.

Texas Instruments said it will lay off 12 percent of its workforce, or approximately 3,400 employees, as it restructures operations following one of the worst sequential and year-over year quarterly performances in the history of the analog and digital signal processor company. Dallas, Texas-based TI also warned that it does not expect sales will improve significantly anytime soon due to continuing weakness in the general economy, which helped drive down fourth quarter revenue 30 percent from the immediately preceding quarter and 26 percent from the comparable quarter of 2007.

Royal Philips Electronics NV (Amsterdam, the Netherlands) is planning to reduce its workforce by 6,000 worldwide this year after reporting its first quarterly loss for almost six years. It also halted an ongoing shares buy-back program. The company suffered a net loss of Euros 186 million for 2008 after a fourth quarter loss of Euros 1.47 billion, partly because of a write-down in the value of its Lumileds diode light unit, as well as downgrading the value of its remaining stakes in NXP Semiconductors and LG Display Co.

Hopefully the RF/microwave industry will not be affected as much as these large electronics companies that are more directly related to consumer demand. Maybe the new stimulus packages will help pull us out of the recession.

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China’s Handset Market Expansion Continues in 2009

According to iSuppli Corp research analysts, China’s domestic wireless phone market is set to maintain its growth in 2009, with a 7.7 percent increase for the year. The forecast calls for the domestic handset market to reach 239.1 million units in 2009, up from 222.1 million in 2008.

“China’s three wireless operators are attracting new subscribers by reducing service fees. This will greatly contribute to demand from first-time buyers,” said Kevin Wang, senior manager of China research at iSuppli. “New subscribers are expected to exceed 90 million in 2009. Furthermore, more existing mobile users will be subscribe to a second number. Beyond that, the government’s broadened subsidy policy for consumer electronics purchases will stimulate demand in rural areas.”

Domestic authorized handset market shipments surpassed 180 million units in 2008. Meanwhile, the domestic gray market decreased to about 40 million units in 2008, down from more than 50 million units in 2007. A number of gray market suppliers became authorized brand-name companies. Their business grew dramatically in tier-three and tier-four urban and rural markets.

Foreign handset OEMs occupied 56 percent of China’s handset market for 2008. Nokia was the largest handset supplier in China in 2008 with a 37 percent market share. At the same time, Samsung expanded its share of handset shipments. Tianyu will continue to be the leading Chinese brand in terms of domestic shipments.

3G arrives
The Chinese government will issue 3G licenses in 2009. However, domestic 3G handset shipments will not increase dramatically during the year. The total domestic 3G handset market is expected to reach 8 million units in 2009. Low-cost multimedia GSM and ultra-low-cost CDMA handsets should be among the best-selling products of 2009. However, smart phones and handsets supporting 3G and the China Mobile Multimedia Broadcasting (CMMB) standard also will represent high-growth segments.

In term of total unit shipments, Huawei and ZTE are likely to be the leaders in China’s 3G handset market. Both were anticipated to ship more than 30 million units in 2008. Moreover, Huawei is now the largest 3G data card supplier in the world. At the time this was written, Chinese handset manufacturers collectively were projected to ship more than 300 million handsets by the end of 2008. iSuppli forecasts that Chinese handset manufacturers will ship more than 360 million units in 2009 driven by both domestic and export markets.

Nokia OSC Technology Extends GSM Capacity and Lowers Costs

Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) has successfully carried out field trials of Orthogonal Sub Channel (OSC) technology that is said to double the voice capacity of GSM radio networks using standard handsets. The OSC test demonstrated the use of four handsets sharing only one radio timeslot without compromising the call quality. NSN says the demonstration with existing commercially available GSM handsets was the first of its kind and is a "significant step in GSM evolution."

The aim is to help mobile operators cope with their cost challenges due to declining revenues per call minute. With OSC technology, operators can gain more capacity from the same base station hardware, meaning fewer base station sites are needed in network rollouts and capacity extensions, which in turn saves energy and decreases the CO2 emissions.

"This successful demonstration is made possible by a software upgrade to existing Flexi EDGE Base Station and Base Station Controller. OSC is fully interoperable with existing handsets, so it promises immediate cost saving for operators", said Prashant Agnihotri, Head of GSM/EDGE product management, Nokia Siemens Networks.

Cellular Growth Expected in 2009

The Strategy Analytics (SA) has posted a new Wireless Network Strategies service report, “US Wireless Market Outlook: 2009 Key Trends,” and predicts that US cellular subscriber growth will remain strong despite the economic situation but growth levels will scale back slightly from 2008. US cellular service revenues will also continue to grow, albeit at a slower growth rate of 3.9%, down from 7.5% in 2008. This is consistent with some surveys I have heard about saying that the technology products people expect to continue to buy are cell phones and HDTVs (those products are part of our everyday life and we are not willing to give them up easily).

SA says that in the current economic climate, carriers must address tightening consumer wallets. “Rather than just pushing prepaid as the perfect recession-proof tariff, carriers will work to make postpaid plans more attractive to budget-conscious customers who are re-examining their cellular spend,” explains Phil Kendall, Director of the SA's Wireless Network Strategies service. SA predicts more positioning for value rather than straight out price competition. “All-you-can-eat operators MetroPCS and Leap Wireless should fare well and present a challenge, especially to T-Mobile USA. Strategy Analytics expects that Sprint will continue to struggle,” predicts Susan Welsh de Grimaldo, Senior Analyst at SA and author of the report.

“The year 2009 will see heightened competition between AT&T Mobility and the new number one, Verizon Wireless—fresh from its acquisition of Alltel. These two will jockey for technology leadership on Long-Term Evolution (LTE), push wireless connectivity in consumer electronics devices and increasingly represent a larger share of total subscribers and service revenues.”

NY cancels $2B M/A-Com contract

The New York Office for Technology said last Thursday that it has terminated a contract with M/A-Com Inc., a Massachusetts company that was tasked with building and leasing a wireless network worth $2 billion. This was the largest contract ever awarded by this office and the cancellation will severely hamper progress toward a goal of building a statewide wireless emergency network.

The contract was canceled as the state tries to resolve a combined, record-high deficit of $15.4 billion over the next 15 months. The state warned M/A-Com in August 2008 that it was in default of its contract because internal tests and independent audits found 19 flaws in initial systems installed in western New York. Problems ranged from radio equipment failures and outages to “unreliable” and “inconsistent” infrastructure and coverage areas. Subsequent testing in November 2008 revealed that 15 of the 19 flaws had not been fixed.

“We are extremely disappointed,” said Melodie Mayberry-Stewart, director of the state Office for Technology. “We have given M/A-Com every opportunity to remediate existing deficiencies. However, the state’s testing concluded that M/A-Com is unable to deliver a system that meets the needs of New York state’s first responders.”
The state has spent $59.2 million on the project, including equipment purchases. Tyco Electronics has spent $51 million to date, and was expected to spend up to $75 million in its 2008 fiscal year, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The state is in line to recover much, if not all, of its investment through a $100 million credit line that M/A-Com established, per the terms of the contract. Half of that money is in escrow. The state has already sent a letter demanding payment to the financial institution managing the credit line.

M/A-Com, a division of Tyco Electronics Ltd. (NYSE: TEL; BSX: TEL), outbid Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) for the 20-year contract in early 2004. The deal is reportedly the largest high-tech project ever undertaken in the state’s history, and the largest statewide, public-safety communications project ever.

Nortel Files for Creditor Protection

On 14 January 2009, Nortel Networks filed for creditor protection in Canada and the US, with Nortel UK entering administration separately under a filing managed by Ernst & Young. The company reached this point after multiple management regimes failed in their attempts to remake the company after the bursting of the telecoms bubble. Nortel’s move may result in a more balanced industry structure for communications equipment.

There is no immediate industry impact from this filing, as Nortel’s downwards spiral has been gradual and bankruptcy restructurings take time. For Nortel’s three key constituencies – customers, investors, and staff – the announcement reinforces but does not fundamentally change earlier concerns. The latest phase in the Nortel saga began four months ago, when it pre-announced 3Q08 earnings (guiding down expectations), publicly put a ‘for sale’ sign on its Metro Ethernet Networks (MEN) division, and then mapped out yet another reorganization. At the time we stated that a more radical approach than divestiture was needed to cure the company’s woes. The bankruptcy filing is radical, but it will be exploited by competitors. They are now in a strong position to remind customers that Nortel can no longer give assurances of continued development of any specific products, which will surely impede Nortel’s ability to bring in new business.

Prior to this week’s filing, Nortel was in the midst of moving from four to three business units by folding bits and pieces of its Services division into the respective MEN, Enterprise Solutions, and Carrier Networks business units. The aim was to create three standalone operations with a more focused set of offerings and resources. Some elements of this restructuring are undoubtedly positive; for instance, rationalization of the Enterprise product line and phasing out some legacy technologies. However, this change follows numerous incremental divestitures or shutdowns of specific businesses and product lines (for example, broadband access and the UMTS and WiMAX RAN segments) in an attempt to focus and differentiate while cutting costs. By entering bankruptcy protection, Nortel’s fate will now be largely determined by its creditors and the courts. Hence the restructuring ahead will be much more brutal and less under Nortel’s control: product lines, technologies, partnerships, divisions, and even customers (i.e. installed base) will be candidates for shutdown or sale to the highest bidder.

Evolution to 4G. Nortel’s mobile infrastructure business is now focused on LTE/SAE (long term evolution/system architecture evolution). It is working hard to develop a strong LTE/SAE ecosystem including LG Electronics, LG Nortel, and other partners. It is doing its best to demonstrate its capabilities through trials (e.g. Verizon and T-Mobile Germany) and announcements (e.g. a deal with KDDI) and expects some commercial launches in 2009. Its LTE assets (part of the Carrier division) may be attractive for another player, perhaps Alcatel-Lucent, NEC, or ZTE.
There may also be some ‘rediscovered jewels’ from the recent acquisitions that became lost in the Nortel shuffle (e.g. Tasman) and may be of specific interest to some acquirers. Nortel emphasizes that its decision to file now – when its cash reserve is $2.6 billion – rather than 6–12 months down the line gives it added flexibility. That may be so, and may allow it to re-emerge as a smaller, better version of itself in the future. However, the scenarios mapped out above, in which rivals use Nortel’s bankruptcy filing as a chance to reshuffle the supplier landscape dramatically to their benefit, seem more likely. While public credit markets are tight and investors cautious, more aggressive capital sitting on the sidelines may also see this as an opportunity too ripe to pass up.

With thanks to - Dana Cooperson and Matt Walker, analysts at Ovum and Maria Di Martino , European PR Executive

LTE Market Provides Enthusiasm for Market Growth

While WiMAX dominated the news over the last year or so, LTE will probably be the hot topic this year as deployments start to happen. ABI Research reports that more than eighteen operators globally have announced LTE deployment plans, and the tough economy does not seem to have dampened their enthusiasm.

ABI Research estimates that operators will spend over $8.6 billion on LTE base station infrastructure alone. Verizon has announced acceleration of its LTE deployment timetable, bringing the launch forward from 2010 to 2009. Many of the others are looking at a 2011-2012 time frame, by which time, they hope, much of the current pain will have passed. ABI Research believes that NTT will also deploy LTE in Japan in 2009 and in general, LTE application development will also drive investment as operators work to determine which services to deploy on this high speed, low latency network.

We will certainly see where things are heading at Mobile World Congress in Feb as everyone congregates in Barcelona, Spain.

Gearing up for a Slow Down

Last October at the European Microwave Week in Amsterdam, I met with a number of RF/mW component manufacturers and frequently got onto the subject of the financial crises that had been unfolding for several months. At the time, the economic downturn still seemed confined to the housing and finance markets and had not yet impacted our industry. Apparently the recession had started the previous December, but those keeping count must wait a few quarters before declaring that a recession is actually in effect.

While most everyone I spoke with was concerned about what was happening, the immediate future looked stable enough. Folks were busy, contracts were being won and business was respectable. Today, everyone seems much less up-beat and many folks seem jittery about potential business and are hunkering down for a long lean period. Personally, I think times like these provide individuals and companies that are willing to be aggressive yet smart with an opportunity to make some real gains against their competitors. It is a time for solutions that save costs and improve efficiency in the long term. Companies that can save their customers money should do fine, but they must communicate this value proposition.

David Strand, president of Strand Marketing Inc., a Newburyport, Massachusetts-based marketing and advertising agency specializing in the high tech industry, has written a marketing brief entitled “Gearing Up for a Slow Down: 7 ideas for Marketing in a Challenging Economy.” Contained within the brief are tips on investing marketing dollars in the most efficient ways. Topics include time-sensitive advertising, e-marketing, search engine optimization, PR and sales incentives.

“In these unstable times, business owners are understandably looking to cut costs. But is it time to do the Ostrich, or be a cautiously optimistic leader in your field?,” said Strand. “I’ve prepared this brief to offer some simple and inspiring ideas for keeping yourself out there in front of customers while the business world is building new cornerstones.”

The brief is available as a free PDF download at www.strandmarketing.com/7things.

More than ever companies need to invest in the R&D that will produce products that most benefit their customers needs and they must communicate this solution effectively. I believe engineers (the bulk of our authors and our audience) need that information in the form of technical articles, white papers and even multi-media outlets such as webinars. Companies connecting to their customers these days will likely develop loyalty that will last through many future business cycles.

Samsung Developing LTE and WiMAX Chipsets

Samsung Electronics has announced that they will be developing their own baseband silicon ICs for both for both LTE and mobile WiMAX networks as well as media accelerators. The effort is geared toward to lowering the costs of its handsets and reducing their exposure to IPR royalties, according to Young Cho Chi, senior VP of strategic planning for Samsung's telecom division. The company historically relied on chips from Qualcomm but began diversifying its suppliers last year by moving to Broadcom and Infineon chips which use a software stack from Comneon, a joint venture between Infineon and InterDigital Communications that reportedly does not rely on Qualcomm's patents.

"It looks like the Koreans are revolting against the royalties that Qualcomm has been extracting for some time," said Will Strauss, principal of market watcher Forward Concepts. "Both Samsung and LG have long chafed at Qualcomm's royalties," he added.

Samsung is already sampling its mobile WiMAX chipset to engineers in and outside the company. The Korean giant wants to be among the first to launch LTE handsets, but whether it will use its own LTE baseband in its first models is uncertain.

The company will support both WiMAX and LTE for next-generation cellular networks, Chi said in his San Francisco talk. Between the two technologies, WiMAX is as much as five years ahead in maturity, but LTE will ultimately be more broadly used, Chi said. "We are also trying to develop competitive multimedia chipsets to support various multimedia functions," said Chi in an e-mail exchange following a presentation in San Francisco in early December.

Samsung also plans to develop its own lineup of mobile GPUs in a bid to avoid the increasingly expensive licensing fees associated with using either ATI or other third-party mobile GPU technologies. The company plans to begin production at a newly opened Texas plant with no details on a release timeframe. Samsung also plans to be one of the first handset manufacturers to support LTE, but it has not clarified whether it will use its own chipset in the first handsets scheduled to be available at the end of 2009

Good Economic News for Leading Technologies

Some of the industry news that reflects the current economic climate in the first week of the New Year has been surprisingly upbeat. The analysts have been busy forecasting and several of the predictions are better than we expected, given the non-industry related news we keep hearing about.

Last month, West Technology Research Solutions (WTRS), a California based research, publishing and consulting company predicted that WiMAX adoption would be strong despite economic turmoil. Analysts feel that consumer demand for entertainment and communication as well as governmental regulatory and economic incentives would push the US broadband market forward over the next 4-6 years. They cite that demand is due to the development of new technologies by many companies at all levels of the broadband services and infrastructure value chain enabling new services. WTRS believes these services are somewhat protected from cutbacks by the recession-concerned consumer market since WiMAX targets on-the-go professionals.

Contrary to this perspective on a weak consumer market for broadband technologies, Motorola envisions strong growth in 2009 for LTE, WiMAX and Fiber-to-Home driven by consumer demand for rich media. Motorola also touted the technology coming online in 2008 - ”historic demonstrations, including the industry’s first CDMA to LTE network handoff, and a steady drumbeat of WiMAX and FTTH deployments and products” as proof that the technology is ready to meet demand.

How does this translate into hardware? ABI Research sees a thrust of demand for dual-mode LTE/WiMAX chips from those wireless device makers seeking to reduce the number of their SKUs; they will welcome the economies of scale that come from creating devices that support both 4G standards. Vodafone, for example, has a foot in both WiMAX and LTE camps. They will use LTE in industrialized regions, and WiMAX in developing nations. In Japan, KDDI may deploy LTE on its own, but as an investor (along with Intel and others) in WiMAX operator UQ Communications, KDDI has an interest in both standards.

Hold the euphoria as the excitement of the new must be held in check with the reality of our times. According to ABI Research, the global mobile handset market went into a tailspin in October and November, which will result in a nearly 5 percent YoY decline in unit shipments in Q4. While 2009 is likely to see more stormy economic weather, there are a few rays of sunshine.

“The number of WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile handsets sold (currently 39 percent of the total) is expected to exceed 50 percent in 2009,” says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Much of the brunt of the economic downturn will be experienced in the 2G categories. WCDMA handset shipments are projected to grow from 258 million in 2008 to 725 million in 2009. By 2013, more than 67 percent of all handsets shipped will be 3G/3G+ capable.”

Smartphones represent another robust segment, capturing 14 percent of the 2008 market with expected growth throughout the challenging period of 2009 to comprise 31 percent of the market by 2013.

Strategy Analytics was also optimistic about our long term prospects despite predicting a decline of 2.9 percent in 2009 for radio components in wireless handsets as the result of the current slowdown. The latest results from the firm’s global forecast models for handsets and handset components, which consider regional handset shipment trends correlated with GDP, component bills of material, integration and partitioning trends, and component average selling prices.

“Basebands, transceiver-baseband SoCs and complex PA modules should remain relatively strong segments of the market,” notes Chris Taylor, author of the report. ”These components will benefit from the trend toward multi-band, multi-mode W-EDGE phones ranging from ultra low cost models to feature phones and smart phones.”

Stephen Entwistle, vice president of the Strategic Technologies Practice at Strategy Analytics, adds, “The market should rebound in 2010, and we expect cellular radio components to chalk up an average annual growth rate of 4.2 percent per year from 2008 to 2013 after a down year in 2009. On top of this, emerging wireless-enabled mobile computing devices such as mobile internet devices (MID) will add as much as another 10 percent to annual component demand by 2013.”

In uncertain economic times, delivering more (i.e. multi-band 3G/3G+) for less is going to be one of the keys to survival.

Economic Ups and Downs

As we kick off the new year, we will be posting our thoughts and related news items that discuss economic trends we see in the hope of gaining some insight into the markets that will grow this year as we try to pull out of this recession. This is certainly a time where market focus is more important than ever and targeting growth markets and any other market opportunities that arise will be a key to success. In this type of economic market, we believe that new product development and targeted marketing are two key areas to concentrate on.

Strategy Analytics (SA) recently posted two new market reports about three-five devices. One focuses on the GaN market in which they state that the majority of demand will come from the defense market (55%) with a compound annual average growth rate (CAAGR) of 98 percent through to 2012 for the market as a whole. There are still many opportunities in the commercial infrastructure market also but these are challenged more by improving GaAs and Si technologies. I have seen a strong new set of high voltage Si technologies targeting this market along with some of the lower frequency defense markets and would agree with this assessment.

This is certainly a good opportunity for those companies involved in GaN technology compared to some other markets. SA also believes that SiC will remain as the dominant substrate material. You can review the entire release here.

In a second report about the GaAs market, SA still expects a 9% growth in the GaAs market for 2008 but has revised their estimate for 2009 to be a 5% contraction year on year due to the current economic conditions. SA does expect the market to return to growth in 2010 which is a good sign.

Most of the market contraction is due to the cellular handset market which constitutes 70% of the GaAs market but they expect the defense market to be unaffected by the decline through 2012. SA expects the WiFi will grow to the second largest market by 2012 with a 20% CAAGR. The full release can be found here.

What do you think? We would like to hear which markets you think will offer significant growth this year.

Top Ten mW News Items for 2009

Below are the top ten most read News items on the Microwave Journal Website. These were stand alone news postings from our "Industry News". Other widely read news items were compiled in our "Around the Circuit" feature. Judging from the top-ten list, readers were very interested in the outcome of the M/A-COM acquisition by Cobham (stayed tuned for special coverage on these two companies in February) as well as the acquisition of Ansoft by Ansys. News from test & Measurement companies Agilent and Tektronix made the list as did two news items from TriQuint on their high power GaN transistors.

1. Cobham to Acquire M/A-COM for $425 M

2. Tektronix Adds Waveform Image Processing to Spectrum Analyzers

3. M/A-COM Technology Solutions Formed

4. Ethertronics Delivers Small Ceramic GPS Antennas

5. TriQuint Unveils PowerBand High Power, Wideband RF Transistors

6. M/A-COM Acquisition Strengthens Cobham

7. TriQuint Semiconductor Reveals Gallium Nitride Products

8. ANSYS Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Ansoft Corp.

9. Agilent Technologies Introduces End-to-End DigRF V4 Measurement Solution for Mobile Handset Design

10.Endwave Modules Feature Integrated Digital Micro-controlle