ABI Handset Market Estimates for 1Q-2010

According to ABI Research, handset shipments globally for 1Q-2010 powered ahead to 303 million, up 19% Year-on-Year. This bodes well for 2010 as a whole as shipments could reach 1.3 billion. It is also notable that 3G handset shipments eclipsed 2G handset shipments. The strongest handset shipment growth was seen in the Middle East and Africa (20% YoY) followed by the Americas, particularly the US (11%). Europe, on the other hand, is languishing with single-digit growth.

Nokia’s market-share stood at 34%. New smartphones such as the N8 are helping the manufacturer to shore up its handset portfolio, as its loss of traction in the smartphone sector hit sales hard. In response, revamped efforts with Symbian ^3 and ^4, are intended to help Nokia regain momentum. Samsung had a strong quarter, securing 21%, and has been cultivating deeper relationships with US and European carriers which helped the firm grow its shipments 40.2% YoY.

LG’s market-share, 8.9%, has suffered from a weak smartphone portfolio in the North American market. Shipments grew 20% YoY. Motorola is benefiting from its initial success (2.8%) with the Droid and it keen to back it up with new products such as the Quench but the market is overtaking it. 1Q-2010 proved to a strong quarter for Apple (8.75m, 2.9%) devices shipped, which is up 130% YoY: a remarkable feat, but Apple should diversify its lineup.

I think the HTC is a real up and coming leader in the market. They make many phones for other manufacturers but I like their HD2 which is out of stock every where in my area due to high demand (I tried to get one the other day but there was even a waiting list, so I settled for a Blackberry Bold). With 1 GHz processors and many GBs of flash memory standard on most new phones, smartphones are really just mini-computers now.

M/A-COM Merges with Mimix

M/A-COM Technology Solutions and Mimix announced yesterday that they had agreed to merge and all products in the Mimix portfolio would reside within the M/A-COM family of products. This is not too surprising as they are both owned by the GaAs Labs/John Ocampo group after they purchased M/A-COM from Cobham in March of 2009.

I think this will strengthen both companies as Mimix brings some very good pt. to pt. radio and other MMIC products into the M/A-COM family that complement M/A-COM's existing portfolio. After Tyco Electronics divided M/A-COM up and sold them off several years ago, this gives the remaining entity that will carry on the name and heritage some more size and broadens the portfolio as the regain their market presence.

The original M/A-COM now resides in 5 different companies:

• M/A-COM Technology Solutions has the commercial product lines
• Cobham has the aerospace/defense product lines
• Harris has the wireless systems (LMR) product lines
• Autoliv (Sweden) has the automotive radar product lines
• Micronetics has the RFID product lines

I believe M/A-COM Technology Solutions will be the company that carries on the name and the others will transition away from the brand. It looks like the company will leverage a hybrid fab model as they continue to operate the M/A-COM wafer fabs but also use external foundries for chip production. Mimix is a fabless company and M/A-COM was already transitioning to the hybird model to improve flexibility and reduce capital investments from what I could tell.

For a short history of M/A-COM, read our April special report "M/A-COM is Reborn on Its 60th Birthday". What do you think of the merger and implications on the industry?

HP re-enters Wireless Domain

Yesterday, HP returned to the wireless world with the announcement that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which the company will purchase Palm, a provider of smartphones powered by the Palm webOS mobile operating system, at a price of $5.70 per share of Palm common stock in cash or an enterprise value of approximately $1.2 billion. The transaction has been approved by the HP and Palm boards of directors.

HP’s global scale and financial strength combined with Palm’s unparalleled webOS platform will enhance HP’s ability to participate more aggressively in the fast-growing, highly profitable smartphone and connected mobile device markets. Palm’s unique webOS will allow HP to take advantage of features such as true multitasking and always up-to-date information sharing across applications. While Palm gains the financial muscle to compete more aggressively with smartphone giants, Apple and Blackberry.

“Palm’s innovative operating system provides an ideal platform to expand HP’s mobility strategy and create a unique HP experience spanning multiple mobile connected devices,” said Todd Bradley, executive vice president, Personal Systems Group, HP. “And, Palm possesses significant IP assets and has a highly skilled team. The smartphone market is large, profitable and rapidly growing, and companies that can provide an integrated device and experience command a higher share. Advances in mobility are offering significant opportunities, and HP intends to be a leader in this market.”

“We’re thrilled by HP’s vote of confidence in Palm’s technological leadership, which delivered Palm webOS and iconic products such as the Palm Pre. HP’s longstanding culture of innovation, scale and global operating resources make it the perfect partner to rapidly accelerate the growth of webOS,” said Jon Rubinstein, chairman and chief executive officer, Palm. ”We look forward to working with HP to continue to deliver industry-leading mobile experiences to our customers and business partners.”

Under the terms of the merger agreement, Palm stockholders will receive $5.70 in cash for each share of Palm common stock that they hold at the closing of the merger. The merger consideration takes into account the updated guidance and other financial information being released by Palm this afternoon. The acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of domestic and foreign regulatory approvals and the approval of Palm’s stockholders. The transaction is expected to close during HP’s third fiscal quarter ending July 31, 2010.

Stranded Microwaver in Europe

Brian Battaglia is the Sales and Marketing Manager for Integra Technologies, a leading manufacturer of high power rf/microwave transistors (i.e. LDMOS). He e-mailed his friends and acquaintances today to say that the volcano in Iceland that has shut down air travel in Europe has stranded him in Rome during a business trip. I asked Brian if he would like to share his story on this blog for our readers. Break out your violins fellow microwavers, here's his tale of "Whoa in Rome".

[from Brian's e-mail]

David,

I don’t know much about blogging but I always have stories to tell.

One week in Europe including Sweden, Rome and Italy. After a few days in Stockholm at the S.E.E. (Scandinavian electronics event) my flight arrived in Rome on Thursday last week. Upon landing I checked my blackberry and saw several messages – from my mom, girlfriend and boss – concerning the volcano eruption which I had not heard about yet. I may have been one of the last flights out of Sweden since this was big news by the time I landed. Somewhere between baggage claim and customs I found the VP of Amplifier Design of Integra who had just arrived from Los Angeles and we made our way to Rome. We had meetings on Friday and were not planning on leaving until Sunday so the volcano seemed like a temporary disruption that would clear up soon surely by the weekend.

On Friday we visited Selex Systemi Integrati a big customer for high power RF transistors globally. The cancellations started expanding across Europe but we weren’t leaving until Sunday and that seemed far away. Saturday was site-seeing (St. Peters/Vatican City/Pantheon/Trevi Fountain) in Rome with plans to leave the next day if the skies opened up. Sunday morning the news seemed hopeful as the no-fly zones were intended to be removed that night. However it soon became apparent that the European agencies were being extremely cautious and the delays kept coming. The stress of the situation mounted quickly – another hotel night accommodation – same hotel, same room, a little over double the price! New tickets purchased through US travel agency that showed flights leaving EARLY Monday morning i.e. 6:30AM. This meant ordering taxi for 3:30AM and 2:30AM wake up calls.

A quick check of the Internet near midnight brought bad news – additional delays over all of Europe. Although we booked on a US domestic carry the flight was routed through Amsterdam. KLM of the Netherlands wished to start flying on Monday but the government would not allow it. This meant cancelled flight and cancelled taxi, however, my Italian must not be so good since the wake-up call still came! The problem is that the airspace has not been cancelled for a few days…no what they are doing is saying everything will open in 12 hours and that has been repeated for the last five days. So every time you check it seems ok but as the 12 hours get closer it moves another 12 hours. It reminds me of the bar back in NY with a sign saying “Special: Free Beer Tomorrow” and when you return the next day of course the same sign in place.

For clothing first you use your casual dress which soon runs out, then back to your business clothes which eventually run out, so today I am wearing a soccer jersey with the name of the local team captain on the back. With decent Internet connections work can still be done as hot ash does not stop emails from piling up. All and all I don’t expect much sympathy from friends, family and colleagues with being stranded in Rome for a week: history at every turn, great fashion, food and wine. Wednesday is Italy’s National Birthday and all museums were free. Thursday is my birthday and Friday we have flights back to US via Chicago via Chicago. Maybe.

Good luck Brian, we hope you make it home in time for your birthday.

Engineer leaves his work behind in a bar

OK. Here’s the story as I initially heard it on American Public Media’s “Marketplace”, driving home from work yesterday.

Last month in Silicon Valley a very important cell phone was left behind at a bar -- what is widely believed to be a prototype of the new iPhone that Apple's officially going to release in a couple of months. The phone wound up in the hands of Jason Chen, the editor of the technology website Gizmodo.com.

In the news report, this phone was described at one point as Apple’s new 4G phone. Which initially grabbed my attention since I immediately thought they were talking LTE (whoa, that’s news), but I have since come to realize, that they were talking 4th generation iphone operating system. Oh well, it was still worth visiting the Gizmodo site and getting the skinny on the whole story and what the web site reporter’s investigation of the phone revealed before they returned it to Apple.

http://gizmodo.com/5520164/this-is-apples-next-iphone

Turning back to RF/microwave related concerns, I reviewed the gizmodo story with an eye out for relevant information. Here are some snippets about the new iPhone that relate to its radio. Among the most visible changes, is one of functionality over looks. The back is entirely flat, made of either glass (more likely) or ceramic or shiny plastic. Why the plastic back?



"The plastic back is the most obvious of the design choices. The iPad, with its all aluminum back, has seen its Wi-Fi reception radius reduced. The iPhone 3G version comes with a large patch on the top, probably big enough to provide with good reception. But the new tiny iPhone doesn't have the luxury of space: It needs to provide as much signal as possible using a very small surface. Industrial designers and fashionistas might be dying to get rid of the plastic back, and go iPad-style all the way, but the wireless reception is the most important thing in a cellphone. A necessary aesthetical-functional trade-off."



The “editors” then took apart the phone. Once open, they noticed that the battery takes up around 50% of the phone, give or take. Diving deeper became much trickier. There are a total of around 40-50 screws inside the phone, positioned at various angles that were almost frustratingly impossible to get to. The main logic board is one very weird piece of this puzzle. Unlike the iPhone 3GS teardown, which revealed a large logic board along with another part down by the dock connector, this design only has something maybe 1/3 of the size, along with one or two extraneous parts. Basically, the guts have shrunk drastically. The board was encased in metal all around so nothing could get through. EMI or IP protection?








Unfortunately, the editors failed to report on the front-end technology, changes to the antennas, power amps, switch modules and other RF components, etc. Oh, well, that’s information for a different audience than they were writing for, I suppose. We need a microwave editor for that. I'll have to ask my publisher for the new iPhone when it's available legally. The chances of me getting one are about as great as me being able to rip it apart.

Perhaps the bigger lesson is not to leave your work behind at the bar.

Next Generation Networks conference and Green Basestations Summit

The Next Generation Networks conference and Green Basestations Summit is scheduled for next week (April 19th - 23rd) in Bath, UK. The conference will feature twenty keynote operator presentations as well as speakers from leading global Investors, Analysts, OEMS, Vendors and Industry Associations.

Building on last year's highly successful event led by 12 Leading Operator Keynotes, including Cable & Wireless, China Mobile, Orange, T-Mobile, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, TeliaSonera and Vodafone, the 2010 conference is targeting its content to attract senior managers from across the mobile industry with topics that include:

• Building a Sustainable Wireless Broadband Future - Exploiting the Next Wave of Growth
• Enabling Technologies - Realizing True Mobile Broadband
• Convergent Networks - Delivering an Optimal Service
• Breaking Through - The Challenge of In-Building Coverage
• Opex & Capex - Preparing the Network for an Upturn in Wireless Broadband Demand
• Beyond The Spectrum - Bringing Clarity of the Mobile Broadband Picture
• U-Tube, Facebook & Twitter - What Innovations Will Make A Difference

This event will be a focal point for information and debates on the key topics of LTE, Network Sharing, ROI, Femtocells, OPEX/CAPEXsavings, Business Models, Technology Innovation and Sustainability.

New this year, will be workshops on Picocells/Femtocells - Enabling Operators to deal efficiently with 3G and 4G Capacity Demands (NGN Conference) and Cost Savings for Hybrid Power Deployment with Generator Powered Basestations (Green Basestations Summit) - all included in the conference price.

AT&T Leans on Femto-cells to Support iPhone Coverage

I’ll admit that I get jazzed when I read a news item in the mainstream media that has some Microwave technology playing a leading or supporting role. So I was pleased when I read this story appearing in the New York Times on Wednesday that discussed how AT&T was addressing spotty iPhone service that occurs in locations where there are a shortage of cellphone towers. The solution, “a miniature cell tower in your living room” was described as a mini-tower, the size of a couple of decks of cards that looked like the Wi-Fi hot spots at cafes and could redirect calls from congested cell towers to home Web connections. Hhhmmmm, sounds like a femtocell to me.

The Times reported the story of Christina Zachariades, 28, a Manhattan resident who already pays $130 a month for iPhone service but cannot receive or make calls in her fifth-floor apartment on the Upper East Side. Despite the additional cost to consumers, the technology is poised for big sales, thanks to price drops but also because of the entrance into the market by AT&T. Other companies — Verizon, for example — have already marketed their mini-towers for niche use to customers in places with limited cellphone signals, like basements or homes with particularly thick walls.

The article went on to describe how industry analysts stated that "mini-towers, known as femtocells, are poised for spectacular growth. Shipments should grow from 571,000 this year, to 1.9 million next year, to 40 million by 2013, according to iSuppli, a market research firm. Falling prices are helping propel sales. Two years ago, for example, consumers would have paid $500 or more. "

Cisco, Samsung and Netgear are among the companies that make the towers; Qualcomm and Texas Instruments, which make chips for phones, have also developed products. Francis Sideco, an analyst at iSuppli, said there were still bugs to be worked out before femtocells become a mass-market product like wireless routers or storage devices, which were once hard to market.

Over the long term, basic economics favors mini-towers in homes over big towers, said Pasquale Romano, chief executive of 2Wire Inc., a company in San Jose, Calif., that is developing one of the devices. Ramano claimed that it didn't make sense for carriers to spend money building large towers in residential areas because most people are not home during the day; as it is, AT&T already plans to spend $8 billion this year on improving its wireless coverage, including on big towers, according to public filings.

The price for the AT&T device could fall to $49 if consumers buy a broadband or in-home calling plan, and could be free to customers who buy both. Still, marketing mini-towers has its risks for AT&T. Even though it expects the towers to improve signal quality and take pressure off its network, they could displace landline telephones because wireless consumers will not need a second phone number.

At Microwave Journal, we’ve been following the Pico- and Femto-cell markets for a number of years now with news, articles and application notes from a variety of sources. Earlier this month we reported on the completion of the Femto Forum’s first Femtocell plugfest (Femto Forum Completes First Femtocell Plugfest ). GaAs power amplifier supplier, Anadigics has been targeting this market since 2008 (ANADIGICS Enters Femtocell Market ) and provided us with a white paper that same year

Last May we reported that femtocells, which were virtually non-existent in 2006, and deployed by one operator in 2007, would make up 61 percent of small cellular base station revenue by 2013, according to reports In-Stat.

Highlight's from last year’s In-Stat report included:

• Femtocells, picocells and microcells are expected to surpass 15 million units by 2013.
• Worldwide annual femtocell semiconductor revenue will approach $400 M by 2013.
• Sprint was the first to market with a femtocell-based service in 2007, while others entered the market in 2008.
• In mid-2009, Airwalk introduced a new enterprise femtocell. These products have the capacity of a traditional picocell and the ease-of-use of a femtocell.
  
  
  
  

Satellite LTE Network Planned by PE Firm

Harbinger Capital Partners plans to deploy a LTE network over spectrum owned by a few satellite companies which would create an open wholesale wireless network available to anyone who wants to offer mobile broadband. The new network will rely initially on 23 MHz spectrum owned by SkyTerra (which is owned by Harbinger) and could later include spectrum from Terrestar Networks, another satellite firm in which Harbinger holds a stake.


The network could help ensure competition among the major wireless carriers because of the conditions the FCC has placed on the spectrum that the private equity firm plans to use as part an agreement to let Harbinger take control of SkyTerra. SkyTerra would be a wholesaler, and that traffic from the wireless carriers in the U.S. cannot comprise more than 25 percent of the traffic over the SkyTerra/Harbinger network. This means AT&T and Verizon could not buy up huge chunks of the network or spectrum to keep others off of it.

The planned network would launch before the end of 2011 and cover 9 million people (trials initially planned for Denver and Phoenix). Then cover 100 million people by the end of 2012, 145 million by the end of 2013 and at least 260 million people in the United States by the end of 2015. Harbinger said in its statements to the FCC that all major markets will be installed by the end of the second quarter of 2013.

However, the 36,000 base stations that Harbinger plans to use, along with the tower sites, backhaul, etc. with a terrestrial network will require billions of dollars. Verizon and Clearwire have already started building out their networks and are investing billions. It is hard to see how Harbinher could afford to do this. According to SkyTerra, the network will have no less than 23 MHz of spectrum, consisting of 8 MHz of 1.4 GHz terrestrial spectrum, access to 5 MHz of 1.6 GHz terrestrial spectrum and 10 MHz of MSS/ATC L-band spectrum. Through a cooperation agreement with Inmarsat and associated waivers of the Commission’s ATC rules, by 2013 Harbinger will have access to an additional 30 MHz of ATC spectrum.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

Wireless Wee Wee

I recently came across Simavita that makes wireless monitoring devices for assisted living residents to monitor when they go to the bathroom and logs the events for analysis to improve their comfort level and coordinate scheduling of changes, etc.

The main component is a remotely monitored disposable continence aid – the SIMpad®. It is fitted with a sensor strip (SIM™strip) that is completely safe for the wearer. A reusable SIM™box fitted to the front of the SIMpad transmits sensor readings wirelessly to a central monitoring station (SIM™server). A key component of the system is the SIMsystem™ Manager, software running on the SIMserver that incorporates an algorithm to analyse the sensor readings and provide an assessment of the continence event in real time; alerting the carer if required.

The SIMsystem Manager automates the process of analysing sensor readings from a sensor strip inside a continence device, capturing observations from carers and presenting the data back to care staff in a manner which simplifies decision making. The SIMsystem consists of:

The SIMbox, when fitted into the individual resident's stretchpants (SIMpants), transmits sensor readings from the SIMstrip in the SIMpad over a wireless network to the SIMserver. The SIMsystem Manager software running on the SIMserver then detects key information about continence events and determines when to alert care staff about an event requiring attention. Alerts are sent via text message to the carer's mobile phone, or via the facility's paging system if preferred. As carers are often unable to immediately respond to events, the software will display a summary log of alerts and manual observations can also be entered. The final bladder chart includes all observations in one easy-to-read report.On completion of the 3-day assessment, the SIMsystem Manager produces shift, daily and 3-day reports that may be used by carers for the development of continence care plans.

The SIMbox and SIMnetwork have been built for ZigBee® for low-power and low-range wireless applications. The SIMbox can operate continuously for at least 100 hours before the batteries need charging. The SIMnetwork platform consists of SIMboxes, SIMchargers, SIM repeaters which can extend the network, and a SIMgateway for connection to the central SIMserver. The SIMboxes are specially designed to be of minimal size and maximum battery life, to be flexible and compatible with a range of clinical applications.The SIMnetwork meets the essential requirements of the Australian1 & European2 standards and therefore is deemed EMC compliant so it is approved for use in healthcare facilities.

What will they think of next for M2M applications!

Updates and a Brief History of Aeroflex's PXI 3030

In October 2003 Aeroflex launched the 3000 Series, a PXI-based modulartest suite for mobile phone and general-purpose wireless test. Today, the Aeroflex 3000 Series now encompasses more than a dozen PXI RF modules andsupporting applications for signal generation and signal analysis, meeting the specific requirements for a wide range of mobile communication standards.
Applications include automated measurement of parametric performance of terminal transmitter and receiver characteristics, terminal TX and RX alignment and performance characterization for manufacturing, and research and development.

PXI OverviewPXI derives its name from the PCI eXtensions for Instrumentation specificationthat defines a rugged personal computer-based bus as the basis for a commonplatform for measurement and automation systems. PXI uses the high-speedPeripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus combined with the rugged, modular Eurocard mechanical packaging of CompactPCI and adds mechanical, electrical and software features that define complete systems for test and measurement, data acquisition and manufacturing applications. These extensions make it easy for end users and integrators to quickly build open, multi-vendor measurement and automation systems. The PXI was designed to bridge the gap between desktop PC systems and high-end VXI and GPIB bus systems.

In order to exploit the benefits of PXI, RF test system developers required first to have their needs met for performance and functionality, particularly in the areas of RF signal stimulus and RF signal analysis. The RF synthesizer has been used by Aeroflex since its inception as the underlying module for using PXI for RF instrumentation based upon the patented Fractional-N synthesizer. The 3020 Series RF signal generator modules are used in conjunction with the 3010 RF synthesizer to provide modulation and waveform generation, RF leveling and frequency tuning from 100 kHz to 6 GHz.

The 3030 Series RF digitizers provide frequency down conversion and highdynamic range analog to digital conversion for measurement and real timeapplications. The 3030 Series RF digitizers are also used with the 3010 RFsynthesizer, which provides the tune-able local oscillator (LO).

(source: http://www.aeroflex.com/ats/products/prodfiles/appnotes/PXIBackgrounder.pdf)

On March 31st, 2010, Aeroflex introduced its PXI 3030 TD-SCDMA Measurement Suite to provide fast and cost-effective production testing of mobile handsets and RFICs based on ETSI 3GPP TS 34-122. It supports all major cellular standards, including 3GPP LTE, CDMA2000, 1xEVDO, GSM, W-CDMA, and mobile WiMAX. The wireless connectivity standards WLAN and Bluetooth are expected to be integrated into most TD-SCDMA phones and are also supported in this single box solution. The PXI Measurement Suite makes parametric measurements of TD-SCDMA transmitters and supports high-speed alignment and performance verification of devices operated in a non-signalling mode. Applications include high-speed/high-throughput mobile handset testing as well as RFIC characterization.

The platform provides high yield and throughput, achieving dramatic improvements in test time using speed-optimizing techniques such as multi-thread processing, pipelined capture, and fast-sequence tuning (FST).

Capacity Constraints and LTE - Hot Topics at CTIA 2010

The keynote session kicked off the CTIA 2010 show with Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, presenting the case that the US is the world leader in mobile broadband no matter how you measure it. The US has the most 3G subscribers (117 million), most WiFi hotspots (70,000), spends the most of wireless capital expenditures on mobile broadband (80%), the highest investment in LTE (30% in 2009), the most smart phones (53 million according to Strategy Analytics) and estimated 412 million M2M devices deployed by 2014. But he emphasized that the US must continue to innovate or this lead could evaporate quickly.

He stressed that we are at a threshold now, so we must address the looming capacity issues as this expansion continues. The US is freeing up quite a bit more of spectrum to use for mobile broadband but we must also find more efficient ways to use the spectrum. LTE could be as much as 2.5 times more efficient than HSPA and the industry needs to work together to develop efficient apps. We also need to use other methods to supplement capacity such as WiFi and femtocells.

Steve Largent, president and CEO of CTIA, went on to say this is the 25th year of CTIA and showed the new "Freedom is Wireless" commercial being released. He stated that connected devices grew from 270 to 285 million from last year to this year and MMS grew 130% in 2009.

A video from the FCC chairman addressed the US Broadband plan spurring business and addressed the plan to free up spectrum. Then other CEOs went on to address their markets and businesses.

The exhibition floor was very busy most of the day and many new phone announcements were made along with various apps. Yahoo was demonstrating their app where you could just draw a line or circle on Google maps and it would automatically list the restaurants within the immediate area.

I got a hands-on look at the new HTC HD2 - what a nice phone! It has a very large, vibrant screen (4.3 inches), 1 GHz processor running Windows mobile, 5 mega pixel camera and HTC Sense which makes the experience very intuitive. I am going to have to check this out as soon as I get home and possible buy one.

The RF/Microwave Zone was busy with exhibitors from Freescale, JFW, Spinner, Times, Atrium, RF Electro Rent, Innertron, Trilithic, Park Electrochemical, RF Window, ACC, Rojone and Microwave Journal.

A full show wrap up will be coming in a few days covering the RF and Microwave companies and products.

Satellite 2010 - Brighter Days Ahead

The opening session on Tues with the CEOs from the big four (Romain Bausch, SES; Daniel Goldberg, Telsat; David McGlade, Intelsat; and Michel de Rosen, Eutelsat) showed that the companies are more optimistic about the market than they were last year. The needs to expand bandwidth and provide communication services to less populated areas are opportunities for satellite providers. The desire for countries to provide Internet access to more of those without access today is another area where satellite can be a solution. While satellite does not have data rates as high as fiber, it can provide coverage much easier to remote areas. But some want to push higher data rates (like 100 Mb/s) over more access. It was said, "Should we get 100% access at 10 Mb/s for everyone or get 100 Mb/s access but not 100% coverage." The cost to do both is probably too high so it would make sense to give everyone access first but people love to talk about very high speed access.

There is concern about interference issues so coordination is a key issue to tackle especially with new bands and applications involving LTE, WiMAX, etc. Also concerning is that many view satellite solutions as too expensive and low in data rates when it should be an economic trade off depending on the service needs, coverage area, etc. It would not be fair to subsidize other technologies which could threaten higher data rate Ka-band implementations for satellite. But a combination of bands is the best solution depending on the needs of the service and area to be covered. Higher order modulation schemes, higher frequencies, etc. will eventually enable even higher data rates that satellite could deliver 100 Mb/s service for some needs.

The hot topics are comms on the move, security, lower power consumption (green tech), M2M/SCADA, video standards, hosted payloads, among others. There are forums on various subjects including the MSUA Conference co-located. They moved the event to the Gaylord outside of DC and found it was not large enough to accommodate all the exhibitors this year so it probably will move back to the convention center next year. That is good news for the industry.

I will have a full wrap up article covering all the RF/microwave companies we visited in the exhibition including the new products they were featuring at the show.

Hybrid Car EM Radiation Concerns

There have been various reports over the last few years about possible electromagnetic (EM) radiation generated by the high current in hybrid cars being harmful. The EM radiation is due to the high AC current running from the batteries to the electric motors. Some older hybrid models were reported to have relatively high fields measured in them some exceeding what was recommended by government. This seems to have hit the news again as Israel has recently stated that they will issue a safety radiation scale for hybrids as they found some current models exceed what they recommend as the maximum exposure level per day.

I find it hard to believe that the current levels in hybrids would be high enough to cause harm to someone in the car from EM radiation but it does not seem like anyone knows for sure. It has been suspected that EM radiation from power lines can be harmful if you live close to them but I don't think that has been proven either. It is also like cell phone radiation exposure - there is no conclusive data that it is harmful. If the current level in hybrids is dangerous, then the higher currents produced in pure plug-in electric cars would be even worse as there motors are larger than those in hydrid models. It also should be possible to shield the wires if there are concerns about their safety.

Has anyone seen data on actual measured EM field values and how it compares to the allowed standards? I have also seen reports that such EM fields can be beneficial to our health so who knows how they truly affect our bodies overall. Please chime in with your opinions as this might be a topic we cover in a future article.

ADI Poised for Growth – RF and Converters Emphasized

I attended the Analog Devices (ADI) Analyst’s Day on Thurs and discovered how much they are going to focus on RF technologies and leverage their expertise in the converter market, where they are dominant (44% market share/ $1.1 B in sales), to expand their RF business in the transmit/receive chains. They currently have RF sales of about $200 M from a total available market of about $8 B if you exclude handsets. They are targeting high performance, high margin markets so they are not aiming for the handset or WLAN markets which are more commodity oriented. They have products covering the entire T/R chain but are not widely known outside the converter, modulators and PLL/VCO/Synthesizer markets from what I have seen but they expect to change that.

I was surprised to learn that the Barry Gilbert who invented the Gilbert Cell mixer works at ADI and still leads their development efforts in that area. The also emphasized their expertise in fast hoping PLL synthesizers and RMS detectors along with variable gain amplifiers. They recently released (ADRF670x and ADRF660x) a transmit modulator and receiver down converter that integrate many functions onto a single chip for high performance infrastructure applications. They expect strong RF growth in the medical, wireless infrastructure and building automation (smart grids, security, etc.) markets and they expect to grow at over 15% in the RF market going forward. It is good to see companies expecting large growth this year in the RF market.

First Junctionless Transistor Fabricated

A team of scientists at the Tyndall National Institute have designed and fabricated the world's first junctionless transistor that could revolutionize IC chip manufacturing. Existing ICs are based on junctions which turn the current off and on to control the device but in the junctionless Tyndall device, the current flows in a very thin silicon wire and the flow of current is controlled by a ring structure that electrically squeezes the silicon wire to control the current. These devices are easier to fabricate and can be made on a smaller scale than current junction devices which seem to be nearing their limit for miniaturization. The junctionless devices also act more like a perfect transistor so they have less leakage current and could reduce power consumption.

I wonder how a RF junctionless transistor would behave. Any insights or thoughts?

Potential GPS Security and Reliability Risks

Last week the International Business Times reported that critical infrastructure dependent on GPS satellites are increasingly threatened by attack from widely available equipment such as jammers and spoofing devices. Air traffic communications, the electricity grid, telecom networks and other emergency services are under threat from such devices that are widely available at low costs in underground market places.

They reported that experts met in the UK at the National Physical Laboratory in Teddington on Feb 23 and professor David Last, a past president of the Royal Institute of Navigation and now a GPS consultant stated, “A portable jammer in a tall building could cover most of London and aircraft approaching its airports. GPS gives us transportation, distribution industry, 'just-in-time' manufacturing, emergency services operations - even mining, road building and farming, all these and a zillion more. But what few people outside this community recognize is the high-precision timing that GPS provides to keep our telephone networks, the internet, banking transactions and even our power grid online.”

They said that jamming devices that can disrupt GPS signals are sold on the Internet for around $100. Last was also quoted as saying “GPS now is like computers before viruses. But there are no big security companies working to protect GPS.” He explained that the gadget could be used to "spoof" a location -- useful to evade GPS based tolls or worse to set others off course. "You can now buy a low-cost simulator and link it to Google Earth, put on a route and it will simulate that route to the timing that you specify," said professor Last.

I am sure the military portion is a better protected but how about personal navigation and public safety applications. Even if jamming is defeated, spoofing would be difficult to stop since it would be localized to a specific area.

There were also previous reports that the US GPS system was aging and nearly its design life for many of the satellites. It was stated that satellites would reach their end of life much faster than they could be replaced weakening the network to the point where accuracy and coverage could be decreased. The reliability and security issues of the US system are concerning. How dangerous do you think it really is? Any insights from technical people involved in such systems??

Short Range Wireless Taking Off

I have posted a couple of reports on near-field communications growing and got a lot of attention at MWC 2010 but short range wireless as a group of technologies is also taking off. ABI Research reports that global shipments of short range wireless ICs (Bluetooth, NFC, UWB, 802.15.4, WiFi) are expected to surpass two billion units this year, increasing approximately 20% compared to 2009. Shipments are forecast to total five billion in 2014.

Bluetooth took more than 55%, following by WiFi at around 35%; the rest of the shipments were made up of NFC, UWB and 802.15.4 ICs. Mobile handsets maintain the highest adoption rate for Bluetooth ICs. In addition to data transmission between mobile handset and Bluetooth headset, the application of Bluetooth technology is gradually moving into computers and consumer electronics products such as laptops, UMDs, and the wireless remote pole of game consoles.

Low power consumption and short range transmission are two key technical features of Bluetooth technology. Furthermore, in December 2009 the Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG) announced the adoption of Bluetooth low energy (BLE) which opens an absolutely new market for products and devices needing low cost and low power wireless connectivity. Likely vertical markets include healthcare, security, and home entertainment. Chip manufacturing technology migration is driving down chip cost too, and as Bluetooth chip ASPs continue to decline, new business opportunities will be created.

Combination chips, integrating two or more short range wireless technologies to deliver further cost reduction and chip size decreases, are paving the way for another trend in short range wireless IC market development. The three major integration solutions — Bluetooth+FM radio, Bluetooth+WiFi+FM, and Bluetooth+FM+GPS — are forecast to account for more than 30% of all Bluetooth combination chip shipments in 2010. The combination chip using BLE is expected to make up 50% of total Bluetooth combo IC shipments in 2014.

TriQuint has plans to release a combination WiFi + Bluetooth front end module soon and others are probably working on similar architectures for future products. These are becoming ubiquitous functions in all of our electronics from cameras and mp3 players to printers and phones. The best option on my car is the handsfree Bluetooth option for my radio.

Mobile Commerce Gets Attention at Mobile World Congress 2010

Apps (enabled by all the new smartphones) got most of the attention at Mobile World Congress. But Near Field Communications (NFC) also got a lot of attention with some trials going on and big projections from the market research firms for mobile commerce. At Mobile World Congress the GSM Association launched the first SIM-based NFC payment trial to drive NFC adoption. The trial included handset maker Samsung, wireless operator Telefónica and financial companies Visa, G&D, Ingenico, ITN International and La Caixa. The companies loaded 400 Samsung Star NFC mobile phones with Telefónica SIM cards from O2 and Visa’s mobile payment application and gave them to attendees to purchase goods.

ABI Research projects that in 2015, shoppers around the world are expected to spend about $119 billion on goods and services purchased via mobile phones. That number represents about 8% of the total e-commerce market. “Mobile online shopping is reaching critical mass,” says senior analyst Mark Beccue. “In the United States, mobile online shopping rose from $396 million in 2008 to $1.2 billion in 2009. While definitions of ‘mass market adoption’ vary, a more than threefold increase in one year indicates significant consumer interest." Noteworthy is that even that $1+ billion turnover in the US is dwarfed by the size of the mobile online shopping market in Japan, which exceeded $10 billion in 2009 alone. This market is growing solidly in Europe too, and is expected to outpace the US by the end of 2010.

In another ABI report, they project that in 2015 about 407 million people worldwide will carry out financial transactions with their banks using their mobile phones. Of those, some 66 million will be in North America. Beccue commented, “It’s not the North American market that is moving fastest to mobile banking: that crown goes to the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for the lion’s share of the world’s 52.2 million mobile banking subscribers in 2009. The global number of subscribers more than doubled between 2008 and 2009, and is expected to almost double again in 2010. This growth can be seen everywhere, but Asia – led by India – is pushing it particularly hard.”

Do you feel comfortable using your phone to purchase goods? Microwave Journal editors David Vye and Richard Mumford were on site and will report their findings next week.

Forecast for Smartphone Market and Chips

Forward Concepts has announced a new study of the worldwide Smartphone market and the key chips that enable them. The study, "Smartphone Device & Chip Market Opportunities '10" covers the top 24 Smartphone vendors and their 2009 market shares and change from 2008. It also provides dozens of detailed forecasts by global region and air interface technology for each through 2014 of Smartphones, key chips that enable them and operating systems.

Some of the key findings are:

· Smartphone shipments worldwide grew 18% in 2009 to 171 million units at a $67 billion level, providing bright market opportunities for both handset and chip vendors in the current economy. The Smartphone semiconductor and display revenue also covered in the report reached $11.7 billion.

· With the economy expected to continue improving, they forecast a compound annual growth rate of 24% for Smartphones to the 496 million unit level in 2014.

· Nokia continues to be the leader in Smartphone shipments, with an estimated 2009 market share of 36.4%, followed by RIM at 19.4%, Apple at 14.9% and HTC at 6.3%. Sharp follows with a 3.5% market share, then Samsung at 3.4%. 18 other Smartphone vendors constitute the remaining 20% share.

· Western Europe has overtaken Japan to be the leader in Smartphone consumption, with a 23% 2009 market share. However, thanks to the iPhone and the introduction of Android phones, North America is forecast to become the leading Smartphone market in 2010, with a forecasted 22% share, closely followed by Western Europe at 21.6%, and fast-growing China at 17%.

· Symbian continues to be the leading Smartphone operating system, with an estimated 43% unit market share in 2009, while RIM's Blackberry O/S and Apple's O/S X has supplanted Microsoft Windows Mobile for the #2 and #3 positions; RIM with an estimated 19% share and O/S X with 15%. Windows Mobile had a 13% share while Linux variants, including Android, reached 8%, followed by, Palm’s WebOS with 2%. Although Symbian is expected to remain dominant, we predict that Android will grow to the #2 position, followed by O/S X in 2014.

On author said that 2009 was the year of Smartphone applications, with Apple’s leading App Store having reached 140,000 applications. All major O/S vendors have followed suit, especially Nokia with its own Ovi initiative. Mobile Internet uptake also remained strong during the year, posting a 29% YoY growth, reaching 500 million subscribers.

This forecast is a good follow on to the previous post on ABI's handset shipments report for last quarter. You would never know if in the US but Nokia and their platform still dominate the world of handsets. It will be interesting to see how fast Andriod based smartphones are adopted by the market and how that affects the iPhone market share.

ABI Reports Handsets Shipments Up in Q4

This is a good sign for 2010 as ABI estimates 336.5 million handsets were shipped in Q4-2009, up 15.1% QoQ. “2009 may have started with a whimper but by 4Q-2009 the global mobile handset market ended with a pretty reasonable bang,” says Jake Saunders, Vice-President for Forecasting at ABI Research. But competition continued to squeeze handset ASPs as Q4-2009 shipment-based ASPs were down 2% to $117.55.

The US stimulus package certainly helped save the mobile handset industry according to Saunders. “Renewed consumer confidence in the second half of 2009 meant that shipments for the whole year only shrank 4.5% to 1.153 billion. Dire scenarios were mooted in early 2009. There is cautious optimism about 2010 despite the fragile nature of the global recovery. ABI Research forecasts shipments to expand to 1.2 billion handsets in 2010.”

Despite Nokia’s weakened position in the smartphone segment, it still managed to maintain 37.7% of the overall handset market. Samsung seems unstoppable - between June 2008 and December 2009, they increased its market share from 15.2% to 20.5%. Samsung has benefited from a strong line-up of feature phones as well as a strong reputation for innovative smartphones. Korea’s level of influence over the handset market is further underscored by LG, the third-largest handset vendor (10.1%). LG has been counting on its S-Class smartphone series to help it secure a bridgehead in the market.

“In 3Q-2009, Motorola, under the direction of Sanjay Jha, has come out of its corner fighting with a refreshed portfolio,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “The Droid has received critical acclaim. However Motorola’s market-share continued to contract to 3.6%.” Sony-Ericsson also experienced a contraction to 4.3% but has high hopes that its Android-based handsets will generate renewed interest. It only seems like a few years ago that Motorola was approaching Nokia for the market leading position but they have really suffered over the years.

HTC’s market share did not fare well early last year. but its circumstances improved slightly in 4Q, to 1.0% share. Notably, HTC announced a revamped handset portfolio strategy, not just targeting high-end smartphones but also launching smartphones that appeal to purchasers with smaller wallets. These low cost “HTC Smart” devices will rely on BREW.

“Smart” Electric Meter Market to Exceed $200B by 2014

“Smart” electricity meters that enable two-way communication between the meter and the utility are being deployed at an increasing pace, especially in North America and Europe according to ABI Research. According to a new study from ABI Research, the number of smart electric meters deployed worldwide will rise from a 2009 level of 76 million to reach about 212 million in 2014. These smart meters fall into the machine to machine (M2M) market which is also growing rapidly as it includes many other applications.

Practice director Sam Lucero says, “As momentum for infrastructure renewal grows, a number of factors are driving the process. High on the list are government regulators. In the US, $3.4 billion in federal economic stimulus funding was directed to smart grid development in November 2009. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) directly encourages smart grid technology adoption by the states, and funds NIST’s efforts to develop a standards-based technology framework to facilitate smart grid adoption.”

For its part, the EU recently enacted a “Third Energy Package” in September 2009 which aims to see every European electricity meter “smart” by 2022.

There are also tantalizing hints of a massive upgrade in China. “Although nothing is confirmed,” notes Lucero, “it has been suggested that China will replace 300 million electricity meters over the next five or so years.”

Other drivers include:

· Efficiency and reliability gains
· Environmental concerns
· Improved customer service
· Energy theft reduction
· Increasing energy market competition

However the path to smart metering is not always smooth. PG&E in California has been one of the early utilities to deploy smart meters, but the rollout has led to claims by consumers that they have been overcharged. PG&E stands by the accuracy of its meters, but the controversy has created a public relations headache – which Lucero terms a “temporary hiccup” – for the firm.

Several microwave companies are designing devices and solutions specifically for this market such as Skyworks, Analog Devices, etc. We will be covering this market as its emerges into the mainstream.

Driving around in my Infotainment-mobile

Home entertainment electronics are finding their way into new vehicles, merging with car-specific functions such as navigation, hands-free phone control, and telematics. "Infotainment" as the technology has been termed, describes the complete ecosystem of electronic devices for automobile-based information and entertainment. Audio and video devices, as well as navigation systems and telematics, are merging into single, fully-integrated systems, creating new challenges for system designers.

Much of the responsibility for the quality of the infotainment system rests with the designers of in-car radio. Thanks to technological breakthroughs in integrated circuits, filters, amplifiers, and antenna designs, sound quality has improved with each new generation of receiver. Broadcasting technology itself has also been upgraded through the Radio Data System (RDS) extension, which offers specialized features for mobile receivers.

Terrestrial digital broadcasting systems, such as digital audio broadcasting (DAB), HD-Radio, Digital Radio Mondiale (DRM), and satellite radio, offer a suite of attractive advantages, although they are still striving to achieve mainstream customer awareness and high-volume market success.

Since more radio functions generally requires additional hardware, available space within the automotive radio-head unit is hard to come by. The compact nature of the electronics also leads to power consumption and heat dissipation problems which must be addressed. The close proximity of electronic systems within the radio-head unit can cause interference and electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) issues, which can result in serious performance problems. This is especially true for sensitive analog building blocks such as the receiver front end and signal lines. Designers must work carefully, using shielding and rigorous testing, to verify that the effects of EMC and interference can be controlled.

Developing next-generation automotive radio platforms that are cost-effective and robust enough to meet customer demands will be a challenge for both OEMs and suppliers. The rapidly accelerating technologies of these systems will require robust product design followed by thorough product qualification. These challenges along with the growing market demand spell potential job opportunities for system designers and engineers with a good handle on EMI issues. We just need to keep our eyes on the road.

Harris Stratex Changes Name to Aviat Networks

Harris Stratex Networks announced today that it has changed its name to Aviat Networks, Inc. (the Company’s ticker symbol will change to AVNW). The new brand represents a culmination of the Company’s transformation over the last three years from that of a specialized microwave backhaul equipment supplier into a leading provider of advanced IP wireless network solutions, with a comprehensive portfolio of migration solutions and lifecycle services. Aviat Networks states that they are positioned to help operators successfully evolve their existing networks toward an all-IP broadband future, expand into untapped rural and remote markets, and capitalize on the explosive growth of mobile data traffic around the globe.

Talking to Microwave Journal, Shaun McFall, Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Aviat Networks, emphasised the company’s intentions to take the opportunity to move forward, saying, “We have carried the label of a legacy supplier in the past, but what we want to concentrate on now is what we have been working on for a number of years, which is IP networking in the wireless base. We are going to continue that work with our goal being for Aviat Networks to become synonymous with IP networking in wireless – both in backhaul and radio access.”

You can see our full write up of the briefing from our International Editor, Richard Mumford, here.

Shape Shifting Liquid Antennas

I am a little late in catching this story from Dec, but it is too interesting to pass up. Researchers at NC State published a potentially revolutionary technology for antenna design, liquid antennas. The antenna consists of liquid metal injected into elastomeric microchannels. The antennas can be deformed (twisted and bent) since the mechanical properties are dictated by the elastomer and not the metal. Creating shape-shifting antennas could open the door to a host of new uses in fields ranging from public safety to military applications.

The new antennas are made by injecting a eutectic alloy of Ga and In, which remains in liquid form at room temperature, into very small channels the width of a human hair. The channels are hollow with openings at either end but can be any shape. Once the alloy has filled the channel, the surface of the alloy oxidizes, creating a “skin” that holds the alloy in place while allowing it to retain its liquid properties.

For example, the researchers injected the alloy into elastic silicone channels, creating wirelike antennas that are incredibly resilient and that can be manipulated into a variety of shapes. Since the frequency is determined by the antennas size/shape, it can be tuned by stretching it.

Its durability and flexibility also open the door to a host of new applications. For example, an antenna in a flexible silicone shell could be used to monitor civil construction, such as bridges. As the bridge expands and contracts, it would stretch the antenna – changing the frequency of the antenna, and providing civil engineers information wirelessly about the condition of the bridge. This had become a priority issue as aging structures have failed in the recent past. There has also been a lot of work done to power the wireless devices with energy harvesting devices so they do not really need servicing.

Flexibility and durability are also ideal characteristics for military equipment, since the antenna could be folded or rolled up into a small package for deployment and then unfolded again without any impact on its function. These new applications are the most likely uses for the new antennas, since the alloy is more expensive than the copper typically used in most consumer electronics. So high performance or new applications could utilize this more expensive solution but maybe other liquid metals or alloys could reduce the cost in the future.

Dickey’s lab is performing further research under a National Science Foundation grant to better understand the alloy’s properties and means of utilizing it to create useful devices. The research, “Reversibly Deformable and Mechanically Tunable Fluidic Antennas,” is published in Advanced Functional Materials.

Google Nexus One - Skyworks, Qualcomm & BroadCom Winners

I love the group at ifixit.com who is always one of the first ones to buy new phones and tear it down to the chip level to see who is powering the guts of the latest phone. They did the Google Nexus One tear down last week and Qualcomm seemed to be a big winner with at least 3 chips including 2 processors and a power management chip.

For us RF geeks, Broadcom supplies an 802.11n WiFi chip giving the device high capacity WiFi access which is not enabled in the current iPhone. Skyworks is supplying the critical GSM power amp (SKY77336) and just announced this big win with a press release. They are also on the iPhone so they have been getting into the high profile phones. They are on the HTC reference design so this should get them into a lot of the Andriod based phones as HTC is manufacturing them for several companies. Looking at the Motorola Droid tear down; however, TriQuint and Avago are listed as the FEM chips.

The initial sales numbers for the Nexus One seem very minimal as it was kind of a soft launch. It seems the phone is primarily purchased online from Google with a T-mobile account or as a full priced unlocked phone. Google does not seem concerned with selling a large number of units but rather just showing off the capabilities of Android so that other manufacturers will emulate the phone in the way they think it should be done.

Do you think this strategy will pay off? Will any current handsets compete with the iPhone??

Keep that phone out of your trousers

De-Kun Li's new epidemiological study shows that extended exposure to weak magnetic fields as low as 1.6 mG (0.16 µT) can have negative effects on sperm quality, so says the results of a report published by Reproductive Toxicology.

"This is the first demonstration of a link between EMF exposure and the decline of semen quality," Li told Microwave News. The study, which was carried out in Shanghai, has important implications for overall fertility because approximately 40% of the Shanghai population is exposed to more than 1.6 mG for 2.4 hours on a daily basis.

The study, a collaboration with Chinese researchers, documented detrimental effects on a number of different indices of male fertility including semen morphology, motility, density and vitality. The effect on sperm quality follows a dose-response relationship: the longer the daily exposure above 1.6 mG, the greater the risk. Men who were exposed for more than six hours a day were three-to-four times more likely to have decreased fertility. The research team notes that the real risk is probably higher. "[S]ince everyone is exposed to some levels of magnetic fields, we did not have a totally 'unexposed' reference group in our study population. Therefore, the magnitude of the effect observed in this study is likely underestimated," they note.

They also comment that what they have seen is biologically "plausible" because experimental studies in China and Korea have shown that magnetic fields can affect the reproductive system of mice.

Li first announced this finding at a scientific conference a year ago last summer: see our post of July 3, 2008. Now the full details are available in the new paper. Li is with Kaiser Permanente in Oakland, CA.

Deleterious effects have now been shown for both power-frequency EMFs and RF/microwave radiation (see "Keep That Phone Out of Your Trouser Pocket!"). The same mechanism could be at work at both high and low frequencies," Li said.

Cell Phone Radiation Might Be Beneficial

Although there has been no conclusive evidence, there has been concerns for many years that cell phone radiation could cause cancer or have other negative effects on our body. But now researchers at Florida Alzheimer's Disease Research Centre (published in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease) have evidence that it could help protect us from Alzheimer's disease. The scientists found that phone radiation actually protected the memories of mice programmed to get Alzheimer's disease. They are now testing more frequencies to see if they can get better results.

Summary of BBC article linked above:
The study involved 96 mice, most of which had been genetically altered to develop beta-amyloid plaques in their brains, which are a marker of Alzheimer's disease, as they aged. The rest of the mice were non-demented. All the mice were exposed to the electro-magnetic field generated by a standard phone for two one-hour periods each day for seven to nine months.

The Alzheimer's mice performed as well on tests measuring memory and thinking skills as aged mice without dementia. If older Alzheimer's mice already showing memory problems were exposed to the electro-magnetic waves, their memory impairment disappeared.

The memory benefits of phone exposure took months to show up, suggesting that a similar effect in humans would take years. The researchers conclude that electro-magnetic field exposure could be an effective, non-invasive and drug-free way to prevent and treat Alzheimer's disease in humans.

Wow, something positive about RF radiation exposure. Maybe we should be buying cell phones with the highest SAR levels instead of the lowest. What do you think?

CES Show Projects Optimistic Electronics Market

Keeping an eye on the CES show, Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) President and CEO Gary Shapiro announced that the consumer electronics (CE) industry will generate more than $165 billion in U.S. shipment revenues this year, a slight increase from 2009, according to the semi-annual industry forecast released today.

“2009 is a year none of us wish to repeat and now we look forward to 2010. There is light at the end of the tunnel and it is the bright light of innovation,” said Shapiro. “We are seeing more innovation at this show than at any show in our history. There are a record number of new exhibitors, more than 330, among the 2,500 companies showcasing the next generation of technology.”

The CE industry will see positive revenue growth in 2010 after a revenue decline in 2009. Total industry shipment revenues fell an estimated 7.8 percent in 2009 although unit volume increased nearly ten percent for the year as consumers bought electronics at a value, limiting industry revenues. As the economy begins its slow recovery from the recession, the CE industry will lead the way as popular product categories are poised for growth in 2010.

The wireless handset category is expected to have a strong 2010, becoming the primary revenue driver for the industry. Smartphones continue to lead the way, generating nearly $17 billion in shipment revenue and more than 52 million unit sales in 2010. Smartphones comprise more than 30 percent of total wireless phone shipments, with that number increasing in the years ahead.

Sales of computers are also expected to be a bright spot in 2010 as the category continues to be driven by the popularity of netbooks. Netbook sales more than doubled in 2009 as the computer category showed stronger sales than previous forecasts predicted. In 2010, more than 30 million notebooks will be sold, generating more than $14 billion in revenue.

I think we will really see an expansion of more wireless devices as WiFi enabled printers, digital cameras and e-readers penetrate the market. I see TVs, video cameras and MP3 players being connected next as higher bandwidth connections become available which would be exciting to have all of our devices finally connected to each other.

I also think it will be a year where the connected home starts to develop for monitoring and controlling lights, appliances and HVAC as energy conservation continues to be a frontline issue. There are several iPhone apps that already enable this monitoring with appropriate hardware (I might have to get one now). There are many wireless technologies fighting to become the solution in this space which would include smart meter reading and monitoring (ZigBee, WiFi, Bluetooth, Z-wave, DECT, etc.).

What do you think will be the hot areas in Consumer Electronics this year?

Pat's Predictions for 2010

New for this year I have put together my predictions for 2010 for RF and microwave industry related topics. Some are conservative because they are based on recent events or articles and some are just things that I think might have a possibility of happening but the probability is relatively low. So here we go:

• The US Gov’t Broadband Initiative Stimulus money will be slow to come but even with the many hundreds of millions given out, it will have little or no affect on rural broadband access penetration (see our Oct 09 article on the Broadband Stimulus Program)


• LDMOS and GaN will gain major market share in the power product applications and become the leading materials for high power applications in their respective frequency sweet spots (see our June 09 article on the Power Brokers)


• We will see some control components integrated on GaN MMICs (i.e. switches, limiters, etc.)


• Nonlinear characterization advancements in the last couple of years will take hold in the marketplace as widely accepted techniques (X-parameters, S-functions, etc.)


• Several amplifiers with greater than 80% efficiency above 1 GHz will be developed as new high efficiency design techniques are exploited


• LTE will make large gains in deployments but not come close to exceeding WiMAX in the number of users (in 2011 I predict LTE will overtake WiMAX)


• SoC and SiP solutions will start to take hold in several applications where discrete solutions used to rule (WiFi, GPS, Bluetooth, etc.) - see our Feb 09 article on SoC/SiP


• Wireless HDTV products will be released into the mass market and one protocol will distance its self as the leading solution of the 4 vying for acceptance (see our Aug 09 article on Wireless HDTV)


• RFID will finally take off and see significant growth in multiple markets including front of the store (POS) applications


• As a result of the terrorists taping into our UAV video signals, new funding and significant resources will be spent on wireless encryption for the US military


• As a result of the failed terrorist attack on the Detroit bound plane, there will be renewed interest and purchases of mmWave and Terahertz body scanners for airport security


• As the military backs off the Future Combat Systems approach as being too expensive, advanced software defined radios will be demonstrated for near future systems


• Smart IED jammers will be developed that actively adapt to different frequencies via software control as IED attacks continue to dominate our attention (see our August 08 supplement article on IED Jammers)
  
• A new military broadband satellite communications program will be proposed to ease the capacity crunch for bandwidth (see our August 09 article on the SATCOM Capacity Crunch)

Let me know what you think will happen this year with your comments.

Renewed Interest in mmWave Body Scanners

With the recent terrorist attack on the flight heading to Detroit, there is a flurry of renewed priority to install scanners that can detect small amounts of explosives hidden on the body. There are two vying technologies for body scanning, low level back scatter x-ray and millimeter wave imaging. They have been slow to catch on due to the cost, speed and privacy concerns but with this new attack, the TSA is reportedly expediting the order for 300 new machines.

It appears 150 of these were already ordered from OSI Systems' Rapiscan unit which manufactures x-ray machines. From our industry's perspective, we hope many of these are mmWave body scanning machines which provide high resolution 3D images. Companies like L-3 would benefit from this increased buying if mmWave technology is used. There are still privacy concerns but the machines have softwave that can prevent abuse. We always seem to have to give up some privacy or rights to improve security.

What do you think - which technology is better? Do the privacy concerns out weigh the security risks??

Cyber Wars: Wireless Networks, Drones and Hacking

When the Wall Street Journal broke the story that Iraqi insurgents have been intercepting video communication signals from United States Predator drones over the last year, they characterized the actions as “the emergence of a shadow cyber war within the U.S.-led conflicts overseas.”

The truth is that cyber war has been the fifth warfare domain for some time, a new theater of war teeming with invisible enemies. The frequency and sophistication of cyber attacks is increasing daily, driven home by the insurgents’ wherewithal to both know that a $26 piece of pirating software could intercept these video signals (the Pentagon admits assuming local combatants wouldn’t know how to exploit the vulnerability), and actually pull it off.

Dale W. Meyerrose, head of Harris Corporation’s National Cyber Initiative and former Director of Command Control Systems at NORAD Headquarters, is quoted in Government Computer News that characterizing the incident as “hacking” is inaccurate; he likens it more to criminals intercepting police radio traffic than breaking into secure computer networks.

What is not being brought to light, is that whether or not the intercepted packet-based video was securely encrypted, the Iraqi insurgents potentially obtained location information about where the video is being sent – a much more severe disclosure than the targets of the surveillance.

Rajive Bagrodia, founder and president of Scalable Network Technologies, explains in a Defense Systems article that that “passive eavesdropping can be used to reveal the location of other network nodes, and the traffic pattern used to deduce other strategic information. If a wireless device is physically captured or hijacked, it risks revealing location information and packet contents while the rest of the network remains unaware. The most secure mobile wireless networks must therefore operate in a ‘trust but verify’ mode with every other peer node, and protect information, including routing information, at every layer of the network stack.”

However you spin it, the exposure of this year-long espionage shines a bright light on the severe vulnerability of wireless network transmissions—which the military is becoming more dependent upon in the larger shift to net-centric warfare. The specific ability to “eavesdrop” on drone-to-ground video transmissions, and what to do about it, was the subject of a demonstration conducted at this year’s I/ITSEC Conference by SNT of Los Angeles, CA. SNT has pioneered a new class of advanced network simulation and emulation tools called software virtual networks (SVNs) that are capable of rigorously vetting net-centric communication systems, particularly the most vulnerable domain of mobile wireless networks.

A recently article by Kevin Coleman in Defense Tech , Drone Video Hacks — The Cyber War Salvo , states that the military is scrambling to encrypt UAV video feeds in the wake of this disclosure. It further postulates that updating decade-old components will present a major encryption challenge to U.S. military technicians, and security needs to be built in, not bolted on later.

This is exactly the kind of wireless network and application engineering challenge that SVNs were created to overcome. First introduced in 2008, SVNs are exact digital replicas of physical networks in virtual space – indistinguishable from a real network. SVNs are based on emulation, which makes them able to interoperate with applications, devices, management tools, and people – at real time speed. SVNs emulate all of the layers in IP networks and can also emulate networks as large as thousands of nodes. This provides cyber security planners high fidelity results that are comparable to physical testing—but faster and at much lower cost. This in turn enables application developers and network engineers to do exactly as Mr. Coleman suggests – design security into the networks and applications themselves.

Courtesy of Camille Cox: camille@onrampcomm.com .

WiGig Alliance Completes Multi-gigabit Wireless Spec

The Wireless Gigabit Alliance (WiGig) is an organization advancing the adoption and widespread use of 60 GHz wireless technology worldwide. They recently announced the completion of a unified wireless specification that enables high performance wireless display and audio and provides data transfer rates more than 10 times faster than today’s wireless LANs, extending WiFi technology while supporting backward compatibility with existing WiFi devices. The completed specification is now ready for member review and is anticipated to be made available to WiGig adopter members in Q1 2010.

This is a nice setup where devices would use the higher throughput WiGig spec for short distance applications and automatically switch over to WiFi for longer distances. It could be used for wireless HDTV to eliminate wires including connections to other video sources. The beauty of the 60 GHz solutions is they are inherently short range due to the high absorption in air (oxygen molecules) so they will not interfere with other signals (and could be used for more secure military applications).

There are several standards vying for wireless HDTV applications such as lower frequency solutions like 802.11n/WHDI (5.8 GHz) and UWB (3.1 to 10.6 GHz) plus the higher frequency (60 GHz) solutions like WirelessHD, ECMA-387 and IEEE 802.15.3c. There was a nice article covering these different solutions in our August 2009 issue called “MM-waves in the Living Room: The Future of Wireless High Definition Multimedia.”

Which one do you think will win out and why???

Radio Heads Growing

I have read and seen a lot at trade show the changing demands of cost reduction and greater efficiency in cellular base station design are leading to a growing market for remote radio heads. According to a new study from ABI Research, this market is on track to exceed a value of $1 billion in 2014.

A basestation traditionally was made up of a rack of equipment with a long coaxial cable up to the antenna. This configuration is more expensive and has higher losses due the long cable up to he antenna. Remote radio heads are compact so they can be mounted right on the back of the antenna greatly reducing the losses. They are also less expensive and software controlled so they can be configured and updated remotely. Multiple heads can be attached for MIMO operation and controlled by a single basestation to further reduce costs while enabling higher capacity. They are becoming more important as WiMAX and LTE technologies are implemented that will utilize MIMO operation.

There is also the shift to IP based radios which makes the software portion of the radio even more important. The capacity of these radio systems is increasing quickly, and I see nice solutions from suppliers such as Dragonwave, Ceragon, Harris Stratex, Exalt and more at every trade show. This trend enables more complicated but higher throughput technologies such as adaptive modulation. For more on this subject read our Expert Advice this month by Greg Friesen from DragonWave.

All these changes in the radio implementations will affect the type of demand for components and software as this shift continues. Suppliers will need to improve device efficiency, reduce component size and improve reliability as servicing these heads is more difficult than traditional basestations. Typically discrete devices are used so future integration of multiple functions will reduces costs and improve reliability.

Have you experienced this change in demand at the component level? Has it changed the demands on antenna performance??