Capacity Constraints and LTE - Hot Topics at CTIA 2010

The keynote session kicked off the CTIA 2010 show with Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, presenting the case that the US is the world leader in mobile broadband no matter how you measure it. The US has the most 3G subscribers (117 million), most WiFi hotspots (70,000), spends the most of wireless capital expenditures on mobile broadband (80%), the highest investment in LTE (30% in 2009), the most smart phones (53 million according to Strategy Analytics) and estimated 412 million M2M devices deployed by 2014. But he emphasized that the US must continue to innovate or this lead could evaporate quickly.

He stressed that we are at a threshold now, so we must address the looming capacity issues as this expansion continues. The US is freeing up quite a bit more of spectrum to use for mobile broadband but we must also find more efficient ways to use the spectrum. LTE could be as much as 2.5 times more efficient than HSPA and the industry needs to work together to develop efficient apps. We also need to use other methods to supplement capacity such as WiFi and femtocells.

Steve Largent, president and CEO of CTIA, went on to say this is the 25th year of CTIA and showed the new "Freedom is Wireless" commercial being released. He stated that connected devices grew from 270 to 285 million from last year to this year and MMS grew 130% in 2009.

A video from the FCC chairman addressed the US Broadband plan spurring business and addressed the plan to free up spectrum. Then other CEOs went on to address their markets and businesses.

The exhibition floor was very busy most of the day and many new phone announcements were made along with various apps. Yahoo was demonstrating their app where you could just draw a line or circle on Google maps and it would automatically list the restaurants within the immediate area.

I got a hands-on look at the new HTC HD2 - what a nice phone! It has a very large, vibrant screen (4.3 inches), 1 GHz processor running Windows mobile, 5 mega pixel camera and HTC Sense which makes the experience very intuitive. I am going to have to check this out as soon as I get home and possible buy one.

The RF/Microwave Zone was busy with exhibitors from Freescale, JFW, Spinner, Times, Atrium, RF Electro Rent, Innertron, Trilithic, Park Electrochemical, RF Window, ACC, Rojone and Microwave Journal.

A full show wrap up will be coming in a few days covering the RF and Microwave companies and products.

Satellite 2010 - Brighter Days Ahead

The opening session on Tues with the CEOs from the big four (Romain Bausch, SES; Daniel Goldberg, Telsat; David McGlade, Intelsat; and Michel de Rosen, Eutelsat) showed that the companies are more optimistic about the market than they were last year. The needs to expand bandwidth and provide communication services to less populated areas are opportunities for satellite providers. The desire for countries to provide Internet access to more of those without access today is another area where satellite can be a solution. While satellite does not have data rates as high as fiber, it can provide coverage much easier to remote areas. But some want to push higher data rates (like 100 Mb/s) over more access. It was said, "Should we get 100% access at 10 Mb/s for everyone or get 100 Mb/s access but not 100% coverage." The cost to do both is probably too high so it would make sense to give everyone access first but people love to talk about very high speed access.

There is concern about interference issues so coordination is a key issue to tackle especially with new bands and applications involving LTE, WiMAX, etc. Also concerning is that many view satellite solutions as too expensive and low in data rates when it should be an economic trade off depending on the service needs, coverage area, etc. It would not be fair to subsidize other technologies which could threaten higher data rate Ka-band implementations for satellite. But a combination of bands is the best solution depending on the needs of the service and area to be covered. Higher order modulation schemes, higher frequencies, etc. will eventually enable even higher data rates that satellite could deliver 100 Mb/s service for some needs.

The hot topics are comms on the move, security, lower power consumption (green tech), M2M/SCADA, video standards, hosted payloads, among others. There are forums on various subjects including the MSUA Conference co-located. They moved the event to the Gaylord outside of DC and found it was not large enough to accommodate all the exhibitors this year so it probably will move back to the convention center next year. That is good news for the industry.

I will have a full wrap up article covering all the RF/microwave companies we visited in the exhibition including the new products they were featuring at the show.

Hybrid Car EM Radiation Concerns

There have been various reports over the last few years about possible electromagnetic (EM) radiation generated by the high current in hybrid cars being harmful. The EM radiation is due to the high AC current running from the batteries to the electric motors. Some older hybrid models were reported to have relatively high fields measured in them some exceeding what was recommended by government. This seems to have hit the news again as Israel has recently stated that they will issue a safety radiation scale for hybrids as they found some current models exceed what they recommend as the maximum exposure level per day.

I find it hard to believe that the current levels in hybrids would be high enough to cause harm to someone in the car from EM radiation but it does not seem like anyone knows for sure. It has been suspected that EM radiation from power lines can be harmful if you live close to them but I don't think that has been proven either. It is also like cell phone radiation exposure - there is no conclusive data that it is harmful. If the current level in hybrids is dangerous, then the higher currents produced in pure plug-in electric cars would be even worse as there motors are larger than those in hydrid models. It also should be possible to shield the wires if there are concerns about their safety.

Has anyone seen data on actual measured EM field values and how it compares to the allowed standards? I have also seen reports that such EM fields can be beneficial to our health so who knows how they truly affect our bodies overall. Please chime in with your opinions as this might be a topic we cover in a future article.

ADI Poised for Growth – RF and Converters Emphasized

I attended the Analog Devices (ADI) Analyst’s Day on Thurs and discovered how much they are going to focus on RF technologies and leverage their expertise in the converter market, where they are dominant (44% market share/ $1.1 B in sales), to expand their RF business in the transmit/receive chains. They currently have RF sales of about $200 M from a total available market of about $8 B if you exclude handsets. They are targeting high performance, high margin markets so they are not aiming for the handset or WLAN markets which are more commodity oriented. They have products covering the entire T/R chain but are not widely known outside the converter, modulators and PLL/VCO/Synthesizer markets from what I have seen but they expect to change that.

I was surprised to learn that the Barry Gilbert who invented the Gilbert Cell mixer works at ADI and still leads their development efforts in that area. The also emphasized their expertise in fast hoping PLL synthesizers and RMS detectors along with variable gain amplifiers. They recently released (ADRF670x and ADRF660x) a transmit modulator and receiver down converter that integrate many functions onto a single chip for high performance infrastructure applications. They expect strong RF growth in the medical, wireless infrastructure and building automation (smart grids, security, etc.) markets and they expect to grow at over 15% in the RF market going forward. It is good to see companies expecting large growth this year in the RF market.

First Junctionless Transistor Fabricated

A team of scientists at the Tyndall National Institute have designed and fabricated the world's first junctionless transistor that could revolutionize IC chip manufacturing. Existing ICs are based on junctions which turn the current off and on to control the device but in the junctionless Tyndall device, the current flows in a very thin silicon wire and the flow of current is controlled by a ring structure that electrically squeezes the silicon wire to control the current. These devices are easier to fabricate and can be made on a smaller scale than current junction devices which seem to be nearing their limit for miniaturization. The junctionless devices also act more like a perfect transistor so they have less leakage current and could reduce power consumption.

I wonder how a RF junctionless transistor would behave. Any insights or thoughts?

Potential GPS Security and Reliability Risks

Last week the International Business Times reported that critical infrastructure dependent on GPS satellites are increasingly threatened by attack from widely available equipment such as jammers and spoofing devices. Air traffic communications, the electricity grid, telecom networks and other emergency services are under threat from such devices that are widely available at low costs in underground market places.

They reported that experts met in the UK at the National Physical Laboratory in Teddington on Feb 23 and professor David Last, a past president of the Royal Institute of Navigation and now a GPS consultant stated, “A portable jammer in a tall building could cover most of London and aircraft approaching its airports. GPS gives us transportation, distribution industry, 'just-in-time' manufacturing, emergency services operations - even mining, road building and farming, all these and a zillion more. But what few people outside this community recognize is the high-precision timing that GPS provides to keep our telephone networks, the internet, banking transactions and even our power grid online.”

They said that jamming devices that can disrupt GPS signals are sold on the Internet for around $100. Last was also quoted as saying “GPS now is like computers before viruses. But there are no big security companies working to protect GPS.” He explained that the gadget could be used to "spoof" a location -- useful to evade GPS based tolls or worse to set others off course. "You can now buy a low-cost simulator and link it to Google Earth, put on a route and it will simulate that route to the timing that you specify," said professor Last.

I am sure the military portion is a better protected but how about personal navigation and public safety applications. Even if jamming is defeated, spoofing would be difficult to stop since it would be localized to a specific area.

There were also previous reports that the US GPS system was aging and nearly its design life for many of the satellites. It was stated that satellites would reach their end of life much faster than they could be replaced weakening the network to the point where accuracy and coverage could be decreased. The reliability and security issues of the US system are concerning. How dangerous do you think it really is? Any insights from technical people involved in such systems??

Short Range Wireless Taking Off

I have posted a couple of reports on near-field communications growing and got a lot of attention at MWC 2010 but short range wireless as a group of technologies is also taking off. ABI Research reports that global shipments of short range wireless ICs (Bluetooth, NFC, UWB, 802.15.4, WiFi) are expected to surpass two billion units this year, increasing approximately 20% compared to 2009. Shipments are forecast to total five billion in 2014.

Bluetooth took more than 55%, following by WiFi at around 35%; the rest of the shipments were made up of NFC, UWB and 802.15.4 ICs. Mobile handsets maintain the highest adoption rate for Bluetooth ICs. In addition to data transmission between mobile handset and Bluetooth headset, the application of Bluetooth technology is gradually moving into computers and consumer electronics products such as laptops, UMDs, and the wireless remote pole of game consoles.

Low power consumption and short range transmission are two key technical features of Bluetooth technology. Furthermore, in December 2009 the Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG) announced the adoption of Bluetooth low energy (BLE) which opens an absolutely new market for products and devices needing low cost and low power wireless connectivity. Likely vertical markets include healthcare, security, and home entertainment. Chip manufacturing technology migration is driving down chip cost too, and as Bluetooth chip ASPs continue to decline, new business opportunities will be created.

Combination chips, integrating two or more short range wireless technologies to deliver further cost reduction and chip size decreases, are paving the way for another trend in short range wireless IC market development. The three major integration solutions — Bluetooth+FM radio, Bluetooth+WiFi+FM, and Bluetooth+FM+GPS — are forecast to account for more than 30% of all Bluetooth combination chip shipments in 2010. The combination chip using BLE is expected to make up 50% of total Bluetooth combo IC shipments in 2014.

TriQuint has plans to release a combination WiFi + Bluetooth front end module soon and others are probably working on similar architectures for future products. These are becoming ubiquitous functions in all of our electronics from cameras and mp3 players to printers and phones. The best option on my car is the handsfree Bluetooth option for my radio.

Mobile Commerce Gets Attention at Mobile World Congress 2010

Apps (enabled by all the new smartphones) got most of the attention at Mobile World Congress. But Near Field Communications (NFC) also got a lot of attention with some trials going on and big projections from the market research firms for mobile commerce. At Mobile World Congress the GSM Association launched the first SIM-based NFC payment trial to drive NFC adoption. The trial included handset maker Samsung, wireless operator Telefónica and financial companies Visa, G&D, Ingenico, ITN International and La Caixa. The companies loaded 400 Samsung Star NFC mobile phones with Telefónica SIM cards from O2 and Visa’s mobile payment application and gave them to attendees to purchase goods.

ABI Research projects that in 2015, shoppers around the world are expected to spend about $119 billion on goods and services purchased via mobile phones. That number represents about 8% of the total e-commerce market. “Mobile online shopping is reaching critical mass,” says senior analyst Mark Beccue. “In the United States, mobile online shopping rose from $396 million in 2008 to $1.2 billion in 2009. While definitions of ‘mass market adoption’ vary, a more than threefold increase in one year indicates significant consumer interest." Noteworthy is that even that $1+ billion turnover in the US is dwarfed by the size of the mobile online shopping market in Japan, which exceeded $10 billion in 2009 alone. This market is growing solidly in Europe too, and is expected to outpace the US by the end of 2010.

In another ABI report, they project that in 2015 about 407 million people worldwide will carry out financial transactions with their banks using their mobile phones. Of those, some 66 million will be in North America. Beccue commented, “It’s not the North American market that is moving fastest to mobile banking: that crown goes to the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for the lion’s share of the world’s 52.2 million mobile banking subscribers in 2009. The global number of subscribers more than doubled between 2008 and 2009, and is expected to almost double again in 2010. This growth can be seen everywhere, but Asia – led by India – is pushing it particularly hard.”

Do you feel comfortable using your phone to purchase goods? Microwave Journal editors David Vye and Richard Mumford were on site and will report their findings next week.

Forecast for Smartphone Market and Chips

Forward Concepts has announced a new study of the worldwide Smartphone market and the key chips that enable them. The study, "Smartphone Device & Chip Market Opportunities '10" covers the top 24 Smartphone vendors and their 2009 market shares and change from 2008. It also provides dozens of detailed forecasts by global region and air interface technology for each through 2014 of Smartphones, key chips that enable them and operating systems.

Some of the key findings are:

· Smartphone shipments worldwide grew 18% in 2009 to 171 million units at a $67 billion level, providing bright market opportunities for both handset and chip vendors in the current economy. The Smartphone semiconductor and display revenue also covered in the report reached $11.7 billion.

· With the economy expected to continue improving, they forecast a compound annual growth rate of 24% for Smartphones to the 496 million unit level in 2014.

· Nokia continues to be the leader in Smartphone shipments, with an estimated 2009 market share of 36.4%, followed by RIM at 19.4%, Apple at 14.9% and HTC at 6.3%. Sharp follows with a 3.5% market share, then Samsung at 3.4%. 18 other Smartphone vendors constitute the remaining 20% share.

· Western Europe has overtaken Japan to be the leader in Smartphone consumption, with a 23% 2009 market share. However, thanks to the iPhone and the introduction of Android phones, North America is forecast to become the leading Smartphone market in 2010, with a forecasted 22% share, closely followed by Western Europe at 21.6%, and fast-growing China at 17%.

· Symbian continues to be the leading Smartphone operating system, with an estimated 43% unit market share in 2009, while RIM's Blackberry O/S and Apple's O/S X has supplanted Microsoft Windows Mobile for the #2 and #3 positions; RIM with an estimated 19% share and O/S X with 15%. Windows Mobile had a 13% share while Linux variants, including Android, reached 8%, followed by, Palm’s WebOS with 2%. Although Symbian is expected to remain dominant, we predict that Android will grow to the #2 position, followed by O/S X in 2014.

On author said that 2009 was the year of Smartphone applications, with Apple’s leading App Store having reached 140,000 applications. All major O/S vendors have followed suit, especially Nokia with its own Ovi initiative. Mobile Internet uptake also remained strong during the year, posting a 29% YoY growth, reaching 500 million subscribers.

This forecast is a good follow on to the previous post on ABI's handset shipments report for last quarter. You would never know if in the US but Nokia and their platform still dominate the world of handsets. It will be interesting to see how fast Andriod based smartphones are adopted by the market and how that affects the iPhone market share.

ABI Reports Handsets Shipments Up in Q4

This is a good sign for 2010 as ABI estimates 336.5 million handsets were shipped in Q4-2009, up 15.1% QoQ. “2009 may have started with a whimper but by 4Q-2009 the global mobile handset market ended with a pretty reasonable bang,” says Jake Saunders, Vice-President for Forecasting at ABI Research. But competition continued to squeeze handset ASPs as Q4-2009 shipment-based ASPs were down 2% to $117.55.

The US stimulus package certainly helped save the mobile handset industry according to Saunders. “Renewed consumer confidence in the second half of 2009 meant that shipments for the whole year only shrank 4.5% to 1.153 billion. Dire scenarios were mooted in early 2009. There is cautious optimism about 2010 despite the fragile nature of the global recovery. ABI Research forecasts shipments to expand to 1.2 billion handsets in 2010.”

Despite Nokia’s weakened position in the smartphone segment, it still managed to maintain 37.7% of the overall handset market. Samsung seems unstoppable - between June 2008 and December 2009, they increased its market share from 15.2% to 20.5%. Samsung has benefited from a strong line-up of feature phones as well as a strong reputation for innovative smartphones. Korea’s level of influence over the handset market is further underscored by LG, the third-largest handset vendor (10.1%). LG has been counting on its S-Class smartphone series to help it secure a bridgehead in the market.

“In 3Q-2009, Motorola, under the direction of Sanjay Jha, has come out of its corner fighting with a refreshed portfolio,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “The Droid has received critical acclaim. However Motorola’s market-share continued to contract to 3.6%.” Sony-Ericsson also experienced a contraction to 4.3% but has high hopes that its Android-based handsets will generate renewed interest. It only seems like a few years ago that Motorola was approaching Nokia for the market leading position but they have really suffered over the years.

HTC’s market share did not fare well early last year. but its circumstances improved slightly in 4Q, to 1.0% share. Notably, HTC announced a revamped handset portfolio strategy, not just targeting high-end smartphones but also launching smartphones that appeal to purchasers with smaller wallets. These low cost “HTC Smart” devices will rely on BREW.

“Smart” Electric Meter Market to Exceed $200B by 2014

“Smart” electricity meters that enable two-way communication between the meter and the utility are being deployed at an increasing pace, especially in North America and Europe according to ABI Research. According to a new study from ABI Research, the number of smart electric meters deployed worldwide will rise from a 2009 level of 76 million to reach about 212 million in 2014. These smart meters fall into the machine to machine (M2M) market which is also growing rapidly as it includes many other applications.

Practice director Sam Lucero says, “As momentum for infrastructure renewal grows, a number of factors are driving the process. High on the list are government regulators. In the US, $3.4 billion in federal economic stimulus funding was directed to smart grid development in November 2009. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) directly encourages smart grid technology adoption by the states, and funds NIST’s efforts to develop a standards-based technology framework to facilitate smart grid adoption.”

For its part, the EU recently enacted a “Third Energy Package” in September 2009 which aims to see every European electricity meter “smart” by 2022.

There are also tantalizing hints of a massive upgrade in China. “Although nothing is confirmed,” notes Lucero, “it has been suggested that China will replace 300 million electricity meters over the next five or so years.”

Other drivers include:

· Efficiency and reliability gains
· Environmental concerns
· Improved customer service
· Energy theft reduction
· Increasing energy market competition

However the path to smart metering is not always smooth. PG&E in California has been one of the early utilities to deploy smart meters, but the rollout has led to claims by consumers that they have been overcharged. PG&E stands by the accuracy of its meters, but the controversy has created a public relations headache – which Lucero terms a “temporary hiccup” – for the firm.

Several microwave companies are designing devices and solutions specifically for this market such as Skyworks, Analog Devices, etc. We will be covering this market as its emerges into the mainstream.

Driving around in my Infotainment-mobile

Home entertainment electronics are finding their way into new vehicles, merging with car-specific functions such as navigation, hands-free phone control, and telematics. "Infotainment" as the technology has been termed, describes the complete ecosystem of electronic devices for automobile-based information and entertainment. Audio and video devices, as well as navigation systems and telematics, are merging into single, fully-integrated systems, creating new challenges for system designers.

Much of the responsibility for the quality of the infotainment system rests with the designers of in-car radio. Thanks to technological breakthroughs in integrated circuits, filters, amplifiers, and antenna designs, sound quality has improved with each new generation of receiver. Broadcasting technology itself has also been upgraded through the Radio Data System (RDS) extension, which offers specialized features for mobile receivers.

Terrestrial digital broadcasting systems, such as digital audio broadcasting (DAB), HD-Radio, Digital Radio Mondiale (DRM), and satellite radio, offer a suite of attractive advantages, although they are still striving to achieve mainstream customer awareness and high-volume market success.

Since more radio functions generally requires additional hardware, available space within the automotive radio-head unit is hard to come by. The compact nature of the electronics also leads to power consumption and heat dissipation problems which must be addressed. The close proximity of electronic systems within the radio-head unit can cause interference and electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) issues, which can result in serious performance problems. This is especially true for sensitive analog building blocks such as the receiver front end and signal lines. Designers must work carefully, using shielding and rigorous testing, to verify that the effects of EMC and interference can be controlled.

Developing next-generation automotive radio platforms that are cost-effective and robust enough to meet customer demands will be a challenge for both OEMs and suppliers. The rapidly accelerating technologies of these systems will require robust product design followed by thorough product qualification. These challenges along with the growing market demand spell potential job opportunities for system designers and engineers with a good handle on EMI issues. We just need to keep our eyes on the road.

Harris Stratex Changes Name to Aviat Networks

Harris Stratex Networks announced today that it has changed its name to Aviat Networks, Inc. (the Company’s ticker symbol will change to AVNW). The new brand represents a culmination of the Company’s transformation over the last three years from that of a specialized microwave backhaul equipment supplier into a leading provider of advanced IP wireless network solutions, with a comprehensive portfolio of migration solutions and lifecycle services. Aviat Networks states that they are positioned to help operators successfully evolve their existing networks toward an all-IP broadband future, expand into untapped rural and remote markets, and capitalize on the explosive growth of mobile data traffic around the globe.

Talking to Microwave Journal, Shaun McFall, Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Aviat Networks, emphasised the company’s intentions to take the opportunity to move forward, saying, “We have carried the label of a legacy supplier in the past, but what we want to concentrate on now is what we have been working on for a number of years, which is IP networking in the wireless base. We are going to continue that work with our goal being for Aviat Networks to become synonymous with IP networking in wireless – both in backhaul and radio access.”

You can see our full write up of the briefing from our International Editor, Richard Mumford, here.

Shape Shifting Liquid Antennas

I am a little late in catching this story from Dec, but it is too interesting to pass up. Researchers at NC State published a potentially revolutionary technology for antenna design, liquid antennas. The antenna consists of liquid metal injected into elastomeric microchannels. The antennas can be deformed (twisted and bent) since the mechanical properties are dictated by the elastomer and not the metal. Creating shape-shifting antennas could open the door to a host of new uses in fields ranging from public safety to military applications.

The new antennas are made by injecting a eutectic alloy of Ga and In, which remains in liquid form at room temperature, into very small channels the width of a human hair. The channels are hollow with openings at either end but can be any shape. Once the alloy has filled the channel, the surface of the alloy oxidizes, creating a “skin” that holds the alloy in place while allowing it to retain its liquid properties.

For example, the researchers injected the alloy into elastic silicone channels, creating wirelike antennas that are incredibly resilient and that can be manipulated into a variety of shapes. Since the frequency is determined by the antennas size/shape, it can be tuned by stretching it.

Its durability and flexibility also open the door to a host of new applications. For example, an antenna in a flexible silicone shell could be used to monitor civil construction, such as bridges. As the bridge expands and contracts, it would stretch the antenna – changing the frequency of the antenna, and providing civil engineers information wirelessly about the condition of the bridge. This had become a priority issue as aging structures have failed in the recent past. There has also been a lot of work done to power the wireless devices with energy harvesting devices so they do not really need servicing.

Flexibility and durability are also ideal characteristics for military equipment, since the antenna could be folded or rolled up into a small package for deployment and then unfolded again without any impact on its function. These new applications are the most likely uses for the new antennas, since the alloy is more expensive than the copper typically used in most consumer electronics. So high performance or new applications could utilize this more expensive solution but maybe other liquid metals or alloys could reduce the cost in the future.

Dickey’s lab is performing further research under a National Science Foundation grant to better understand the alloy’s properties and means of utilizing it to create useful devices. The research, “Reversibly Deformable and Mechanically Tunable Fluidic Antennas,” is published in Advanced Functional Materials.

Google Nexus One - Skyworks, Qualcomm & BroadCom Winners

I love the group at ifixit.com who is always one of the first ones to buy new phones and tear it down to the chip level to see who is powering the guts of the latest phone. They did the Google Nexus One tear down last week and Qualcomm seemed to be a big winner with at least 3 chips including 2 processors and a power management chip.

For us RF geeks, Broadcom supplies an 802.11n WiFi chip giving the device high capacity WiFi access which is not enabled in the current iPhone. Skyworks is supplying the critical GSM power amp (SKY77336) and just announced this big win with a press release. They are also on the iPhone so they have been getting into the high profile phones. They are on the HTC reference design so this should get them into a lot of the Andriod based phones as HTC is manufacturing them for several companies. Looking at the Motorola Droid tear down; however, TriQuint and Avago are listed as the FEM chips.

The initial sales numbers for the Nexus One seem very minimal as it was kind of a soft launch. It seems the phone is primarily purchased online from Google with a T-mobile account or as a full priced unlocked phone. Google does not seem concerned with selling a large number of units but rather just showing off the capabilities of Android so that other manufacturers will emulate the phone in the way they think it should be done.

Do you think this strategy will pay off? Will any current handsets compete with the iPhone??

Keep that phone out of your trousers

De-Kun Li's new epidemiological study shows that extended exposure to weak magnetic fields as low as 1.6 mG (0.16 µT) can have negative effects on sperm quality, so says the results of a report published by Reproductive Toxicology.

"This is the first demonstration of a link between EMF exposure and the decline of semen quality," Li told Microwave News. The study, which was carried out in Shanghai, has important implications for overall fertility because approximately 40% of the Shanghai population is exposed to more than 1.6 mG for 2.4 hours on a daily basis.

The study, a collaboration with Chinese researchers, documented detrimental effects on a number of different indices of male fertility including semen morphology, motility, density and vitality. The effect on sperm quality follows a dose-response relationship: the longer the daily exposure above 1.6 mG, the greater the risk. Men who were exposed for more than six hours a day were three-to-four times more likely to have decreased fertility. The research team notes that the real risk is probably higher. "[S]ince everyone is exposed to some levels of magnetic fields, we did not have a totally 'unexposed' reference group in our study population. Therefore, the magnitude of the effect observed in this study is likely underestimated," they note.

They also comment that what they have seen is biologically "plausible" because experimental studies in China and Korea have shown that magnetic fields can affect the reproductive system of mice.

Li first announced this finding at a scientific conference a year ago last summer: see our post of July 3, 2008. Now the full details are available in the new paper. Li is with Kaiser Permanente in Oakland, CA.

Deleterious effects have now been shown for both power-frequency EMFs and RF/microwave radiation (see "Keep That Phone Out of Your Trouser Pocket!"). The same mechanism could be at work at both high and low frequencies," Li said.

Cell Phone Radiation Might Be Beneficial

Although there has been no conclusive evidence, there has been concerns for many years that cell phone radiation could cause cancer or have other negative effects on our body. But now researchers at Florida Alzheimer's Disease Research Centre (published in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease) have evidence that it could help protect us from Alzheimer's disease. The scientists found that phone radiation actually protected the memories of mice programmed to get Alzheimer's disease. They are now testing more frequencies to see if they can get better results.

Summary of BBC article linked above:
The study involved 96 mice, most of which had been genetically altered to develop beta-amyloid plaques in their brains, which are a marker of Alzheimer's disease, as they aged. The rest of the mice were non-demented. All the mice were exposed to the electro-magnetic field generated by a standard phone for two one-hour periods each day for seven to nine months.

The Alzheimer's mice performed as well on tests measuring memory and thinking skills as aged mice without dementia. If older Alzheimer's mice already showing memory problems were exposed to the electro-magnetic waves, their memory impairment disappeared.

The memory benefits of phone exposure took months to show up, suggesting that a similar effect in humans would take years. The researchers conclude that electro-magnetic field exposure could be an effective, non-invasive and drug-free way to prevent and treat Alzheimer's disease in humans.

Wow, something positive about RF radiation exposure. Maybe we should be buying cell phones with the highest SAR levels instead of the lowest. What do you think?

CES Show Projects Optimistic Electronics Market

Keeping an eye on the CES show, Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) President and CEO Gary Shapiro announced that the consumer electronics (CE) industry will generate more than $165 billion in U.S. shipment revenues this year, a slight increase from 2009, according to the semi-annual industry forecast released today.

“2009 is a year none of us wish to repeat and now we look forward to 2010. There is light at the end of the tunnel and it is the bright light of innovation,” said Shapiro. “We are seeing more innovation at this show than at any show in our history. There are a record number of new exhibitors, more than 330, among the 2,500 companies showcasing the next generation of technology.”

The CE industry will see positive revenue growth in 2010 after a revenue decline in 2009. Total industry shipment revenues fell an estimated 7.8 percent in 2009 although unit volume increased nearly ten percent for the year as consumers bought electronics at a value, limiting industry revenues. As the economy begins its slow recovery from the recession, the CE industry will lead the way as popular product categories are poised for growth in 2010.

The wireless handset category is expected to have a strong 2010, becoming the primary revenue driver for the industry. Smartphones continue to lead the way, generating nearly $17 billion in shipment revenue and more than 52 million unit sales in 2010. Smartphones comprise more than 30 percent of total wireless phone shipments, with that number increasing in the years ahead.

Sales of computers are also expected to be a bright spot in 2010 as the category continues to be driven by the popularity of netbooks. Netbook sales more than doubled in 2009 as the computer category showed stronger sales than previous forecasts predicted. In 2010, more than 30 million notebooks will be sold, generating more than $14 billion in revenue.

I think we will really see an expansion of more wireless devices as WiFi enabled printers, digital cameras and e-readers penetrate the market. I see TVs, video cameras and MP3 players being connected next as higher bandwidth connections become available which would be exciting to have all of our devices finally connected to each other.

I also think it will be a year where the connected home starts to develop for monitoring and controlling lights, appliances and HVAC as energy conservation continues to be a frontline issue. There are several iPhone apps that already enable this monitoring with appropriate hardware (I might have to get one now). There are many wireless technologies fighting to become the solution in this space which would include smart meter reading and monitoring (ZigBee, WiFi, Bluetooth, Z-wave, DECT, etc.).

What do you think will be the hot areas in Consumer Electronics this year?

Pat's Predictions for 2010

New for this year I have put together my predictions for 2010 for RF and microwave industry related topics. Some are conservative because they are based on recent events or articles and some are just things that I think might have a possibility of happening but the probability is relatively low. So here we go:

• The US Gov’t Broadband Initiative Stimulus money will be slow to come but even with the many hundreds of millions given out, it will have little or no affect on rural broadband access penetration (see our Oct 09 article on the Broadband Stimulus Program)


• LDMOS and GaN will gain major market share in the power product applications and become the leading materials for high power applications in their respective frequency sweet spots (see our June 09 article on the Power Brokers)


• We will see some control components integrated on GaN MMICs (i.e. switches, limiters, etc.)


• Nonlinear characterization advancements in the last couple of years will take hold in the marketplace as widely accepted techniques (X-parameters, S-functions, etc.)


• Several amplifiers with greater than 80% efficiency above 1 GHz will be developed as new high efficiency design techniques are exploited


• LTE will make large gains in deployments but not come close to exceeding WiMAX in the number of users (in 2011 I predict LTE will overtake WiMAX)


• SoC and SiP solutions will start to take hold in several applications where discrete solutions used to rule (WiFi, GPS, Bluetooth, etc.) - see our Feb 09 article on SoC/SiP


• Wireless HDTV products will be released into the mass market and one protocol will distance its self as the leading solution of the 4 vying for acceptance (see our Aug 09 article on Wireless HDTV)


• RFID will finally take off and see significant growth in multiple markets including front of the store (POS) applications


• As a result of the terrorists taping into our UAV video signals, new funding and significant resources will be spent on wireless encryption for the US military


• As a result of the failed terrorist attack on the Detroit bound plane, there will be renewed interest and purchases of mmWave and Terahertz body scanners for airport security


• As the military backs off the Future Combat Systems approach as being too expensive, advanced software defined radios will be demonstrated for near future systems


• Smart IED jammers will be developed that actively adapt to different frequencies via software control as IED attacks continue to dominate our attention (see our August 08 supplement article on IED Jammers)
  
• A new military broadband satellite communications program will be proposed to ease the capacity crunch for bandwidth (see our August 09 article on the SATCOM Capacity Crunch)

Let me know what you think will happen this year with your comments.

Renewed Interest in mmWave Body Scanners

With the recent terrorist attack on the flight heading to Detroit, there is a flurry of renewed priority to install scanners that can detect small amounts of explosives hidden on the body. There are two vying technologies for body scanning, low level back scatter x-ray and millimeter wave imaging. They have been slow to catch on due to the cost, speed and privacy concerns but with this new attack, the TSA is reportedly expediting the order for 300 new machines.

It appears 150 of these were already ordered from OSI Systems' Rapiscan unit which manufactures x-ray machines. From our industry's perspective, we hope many of these are mmWave body scanning machines which provide high resolution 3D images. Companies like L-3 would benefit from this increased buying if mmWave technology is used. There are still privacy concerns but the machines have softwave that can prevent abuse. We always seem to have to give up some privacy or rights to improve security.

What do you think - which technology is better? Do the privacy concerns out weigh the security risks??

Cyber Wars: Wireless Networks, Drones and Hacking

When the Wall Street Journal broke the story that Iraqi insurgents have been intercepting video communication signals from United States Predator drones over the last year, they characterized the actions as “the emergence of a shadow cyber war within the U.S.-led conflicts overseas.”

The truth is that cyber war has been the fifth warfare domain for some time, a new theater of war teeming with invisible enemies. The frequency and sophistication of cyber attacks is increasing daily, driven home by the insurgents’ wherewithal to both know that a $26 piece of pirating software could intercept these video signals (the Pentagon admits assuming local combatants wouldn’t know how to exploit the vulnerability), and actually pull it off.

Dale W. Meyerrose, head of Harris Corporation’s National Cyber Initiative and former Director of Command Control Systems at NORAD Headquarters, is quoted in Government Computer News that characterizing the incident as “hacking” is inaccurate; he likens it more to criminals intercepting police radio traffic than breaking into secure computer networks.

What is not being brought to light, is that whether or not the intercepted packet-based video was securely encrypted, the Iraqi insurgents potentially obtained location information about where the video is being sent – a much more severe disclosure than the targets of the surveillance.

Rajive Bagrodia, founder and president of Scalable Network Technologies, explains in a Defense Systems article that that “passive eavesdropping can be used to reveal the location of other network nodes, and the traffic pattern used to deduce other strategic information. If a wireless device is physically captured or hijacked, it risks revealing location information and packet contents while the rest of the network remains unaware. The most secure mobile wireless networks must therefore operate in a ‘trust but verify’ mode with every other peer node, and protect information, including routing information, at every layer of the network stack.”

However you spin it, the exposure of this year-long espionage shines a bright light on the severe vulnerability of wireless network transmissions—which the military is becoming more dependent upon in the larger shift to net-centric warfare. The specific ability to “eavesdrop” on drone-to-ground video transmissions, and what to do about it, was the subject of a demonstration conducted at this year’s I/ITSEC Conference by SNT of Los Angeles, CA. SNT has pioneered a new class of advanced network simulation and emulation tools called software virtual networks (SVNs) that are capable of rigorously vetting net-centric communication systems, particularly the most vulnerable domain of mobile wireless networks.

A recently article by Kevin Coleman in Defense Tech , Drone Video Hacks — The Cyber War Salvo , states that the military is scrambling to encrypt UAV video feeds in the wake of this disclosure. It further postulates that updating decade-old components will present a major encryption challenge to U.S. military technicians, and security needs to be built in, not bolted on later.

This is exactly the kind of wireless network and application engineering challenge that SVNs were created to overcome. First introduced in 2008, SVNs are exact digital replicas of physical networks in virtual space – indistinguishable from a real network. SVNs are based on emulation, which makes them able to interoperate with applications, devices, management tools, and people – at real time speed. SVNs emulate all of the layers in IP networks and can also emulate networks as large as thousands of nodes. This provides cyber security planners high fidelity results that are comparable to physical testing—but faster and at much lower cost. This in turn enables application developers and network engineers to do exactly as Mr. Coleman suggests – design security into the networks and applications themselves.

Courtesy of Camille Cox: camille@onrampcomm.com .

WiGig Alliance Completes Multi-gigabit Wireless Spec

The Wireless Gigabit Alliance (WiGig) is an organization advancing the adoption and widespread use of 60 GHz wireless technology worldwide. They recently announced the completion of a unified wireless specification that enables high performance wireless display and audio and provides data transfer rates more than 10 times faster than today’s wireless LANs, extending WiFi technology while supporting backward compatibility with existing WiFi devices. The completed specification is now ready for member review and is anticipated to be made available to WiGig adopter members in Q1 2010.

This is a nice setup where devices would use the higher throughput WiGig spec for short distance applications and automatically switch over to WiFi for longer distances. It could be used for wireless HDTV to eliminate wires including connections to other video sources. The beauty of the 60 GHz solutions is they are inherently short range due to the high absorption in air (oxygen molecules) so they will not interfere with other signals (and could be used for more secure military applications).

There are several standards vying for wireless HDTV applications such as lower frequency solutions like 802.11n/WHDI (5.8 GHz) and UWB (3.1 to 10.6 GHz) plus the higher frequency (60 GHz) solutions like WirelessHD, ECMA-387 and IEEE 802.15.3c. There was a nice article covering these different solutions in our August 2009 issue called “MM-waves in the Living Room: The Future of Wireless High Definition Multimedia.”

Which one do you think will win out and why???

Radio Heads Growing

I have read and seen a lot at trade show the changing demands of cost reduction and greater efficiency in cellular base station design are leading to a growing market for remote radio heads. According to a new study from ABI Research, this market is on track to exceed a value of $1 billion in 2014.

A basestation traditionally was made up of a rack of equipment with a long coaxial cable up to the antenna. This configuration is more expensive and has higher losses due the long cable up to he antenna. Remote radio heads are compact so they can be mounted right on the back of the antenna greatly reducing the losses. They are also less expensive and software controlled so they can be configured and updated remotely. Multiple heads can be attached for MIMO operation and controlled by a single basestation to further reduce costs while enabling higher capacity. They are becoming more important as WiMAX and LTE technologies are implemented that will utilize MIMO operation.

There is also the shift to IP based radios which makes the software portion of the radio even more important. The capacity of these radio systems is increasing quickly, and I see nice solutions from suppliers such as Dragonwave, Ceragon, Harris Stratex, Exalt and more at every trade show. This trend enables more complicated but higher throughput technologies such as adaptive modulation. For more on this subject read our Expert Advice this month by Greg Friesen from DragonWave.

All these changes in the radio implementations will affect the type of demand for components and software as this shift continues. Suppliers will need to improve device efficiency, reduce component size and improve reliability as servicing these heads is more difficult than traditional basestations. Typically discrete devices are used so future integration of multiple functions will reduces costs and improve reliability.

Have you experienced this change in demand at the component level? Has it changed the demands on antenna performance??

How Designers Search

The results of a survey by a trade journal serving the Integrated Circuit market on “How Designers Search – Survey Results.” offered some interesting food for thought. The information was gleaned from the 185 managers, engineers and programmers working in commercial or military sectors out of 443 respondents to a survey sent to eg3.com’s 43,000-plus subscriber list.

The survey attempted to determine how engineers and programmers search for information on technology, what types of content they were seeking, and how they went about finding it. As might be expected, search engines ranked high and were used by engineers, virtually all the time, with Google leading the pack, followed by Yahoo (a distant second) and Microsoft’s Bing.

The survey results also provided insight into how engineers use these search engines. Not surprisingly, most engineers do not give up after the first page of links, but go deep into the result pages. In fact, almost 40% “often” or “always” go as far as Page 10 on their searches. This makes sense for people working in highly technical and specialized fields and represents one flaw in general search engines such as Google. Since they serve the general public, specialized content is easily buried. I know this to be true from my own research efforts, which can often require going far into the Google results. I wouldn’t be surprised if the problem gets much worse before we start seeing a backlash and a shift in the use of search technology and introduction of alternative products/services.

Beyond search engines, online media was ranked as a very good source of information to the engineering community, while emails and newsletters were also highly regarded. Perhaps online media should be ranked as the highest source of information, since search engines ultimately just redirect engineers to these sites anyways.

Social media as a source of information is growing slowly but currently ranked low enough among the survey takers to make some people conclude that social media is greatly overhyped for distributing information. I have a different opinion. I have just recently started using Twitter, Linked-in and Facebook to distribute information that I find useful and assume others will to. If e-mailing a good article to colleagues is common among engineers (which according to the survey, it is), then I believe social media will be adopted for a similar purpose in much greater numbers in 2010. Instead of forwarding an article and listing all the recipients' e-mail addresses, I can forward an article in two mouse clicks via Twitter and cover all the people who follow my Tweets. Think of it as a recommendation service - "As someone working in the microwave/wireless field I found this interesting and think you will to". Its like a custom ad-hoc newsletter. We have just implemented this share capability (Twitter, Linked-in,.. ) on the Microwave Journal web site, and I hope many of you take advantage of it. Engineers may not necessarily be first adaptors but once they discover a time-saving tool, watch out.


The survey found trade shows and print publications still popular but significantly behind search engines for research. This also makes sense. Print has many great qualities, providing a unique, tactile reader experience that the web cannot deliver, although hyper-linking isn’t one of them. I also know that many of our print subscribers hold on to their copies for many months or pass them around the office. This information educates many engineers before they ever go online and fire up the search engine.

In the “What do Designers Want” category, ‘hands-on’ items such as demos, software and evaluation kits rank very highly. On the flip side, vendor articles and webinars ranked moderately low and podcasts very low in response to a “What Information do you seek” question. I found thess results very surprising and perhaps weighted by an abundance of self-promoting, marketing focused articles appearing elsewhere on the web. I know these are a big turn-off for technical people, looking for information to get their jobs done.

Looking at the attendance of MWJ/Besser webinars and download rates of vendor white papers, which remain quite high, I believe the continued popularity of both is testament to the quality of information (and self-restraint) that the marketing people in our industry have shown when developing and presenting information about their technologies and products.

If we can do more to help you find what you need, feel free to comment. The suggestion box is open.

WiMAX Growing Quickly as LTE Looms Large

ABI Research just released a report that mobile WiMAX subscribers will be about 2 million strong by the end of 2009 this month. They state that Clearwire in the United States has already declared 173,000 subscribers, Yota in Russia has been growing at a decent rate reaching 100,000 subscribers in August and 200,000 in October, and PacketOne in Malaysia has reached 130,000 subscribers.

Plus we have UQ Communications that expected to reach 300,000 subscribers by the end of 2009, but is behind schedule in its rollout and will fall short of that initial target. South Korea has seen KT’s and SKT's subscriber numbers remain fairly stagnant, while these service providers prepare for another big push as a third WiMAX service provider comes to South Korea.

This handful of WiMAX service providers alone will account for a significant minority of the nearly two million mobile WiMAX subscribers expected by the end of 2009.

I have read a lot about South Korea's outstanding mobile WiMAX network that works well even throughout its underground subway. They have fast data rates and low drop out rates with a multitude of applications available. They boast the highest broadband household penetration rate of 95% as referenced in our Oct cover story on the US Broadband Initiative (compared to the US rate of 60%).

ABI's practice director Philip Solis says "Mobile WiMAX service providers around the world find themselves in very different situations". Some are mainly focused on fixed services for homes and businesses, while others are jumping feet first into mobile WiMAX, offering a variety of external modems, laptops, netbooks and even handsets tied into HD multimedia services, as with Yota in Russia. Some have little fixed or mobile broadband competition, while others are competing directly against fixed and mobile broadband services.

"Some, such as Japan's UQ Communications, are behind their buildout schedules and subscriber expectations, while others such are Clearwire are increasing the pace of their deployments because of more-than-adequate funding. Still others such as Yota in Russia are exceeding all expectations. Some are remaining local, while others, such as Clearwire and Yota, are building networks in more than one country."

Just as the mobile WiMAX market is starting to bloom, LTE networks from early movers such as Verizon Wireless and NTT DoCoMo are targeting the same potential customers. The LTE ecosystem will eventually be vastly larger than the mobile WiMAX ecosystem, but just as LTE deployments start picking up in 2011 and 2012, some 802.16e service providers will begin upgrading their networks to 802.16m.

How soon do you see LTE taking over the lead over WiMAX for subscribers? I think it will be a couple of years but it will happen. They both have their place depending on the application and location so I don't think one is always better than the other.

SA Says GaAs Evolving to Stave Off Si Challenge

Strategy Analytics reports that the GaAs industry is creating innovations designed to stave off the dual challenges of integration and low-cost silicon technologies. Newer BiFET and BiHEMT processes will enable GaAs device manufacturers to integrate HBT power amplifiers onto a single die with HEMT-based switches and other functions. Meanwhile, the use of optical lithography for production of smaller geometry processes will enable more cost-effective production of millimeter-wave ICs. But HBT and HEMT processes will continue to underpin the commercial market for GaAs devices which will be worth $4 - $5 billion by 2013, as stated in the latest Strategy Analytics study.

“BiFET and BiHEMT technologies will enable the development of a future class of products, providing integrated solutions that retain the industry-leading performance offered by GaAs and necessary for next-generation wireless markets,” noted Steve Entwistle, VP of Strategy Analytics’ Strategic Technologies Practice.

“GaAs is still erroneously perceived by many as an exotic, expensive technology,” said Asif Anwar, Director of the Strategy Analytics GaAs and Compound Semiconductor Technologies Service. “The reality is that GaAs technologies continue to meet the requirements from cost-sensitive markets, such as cellular handsets and is the most cost-effective technology for markets that require millimeter-wave performance.”

Mr. Anwar concluded, “The application of optical lithography for millimeter-wave IC production will significantly enhance the cost-effectiveness of GaAs compared to silicon technology-based offerings, while retaining the benefits of performance and faster time-to-market.”

How much progression do you think GaAs BiFET and BiHEMT processes are making to fend off Si improvements in integration and lower cost?

Keithley Sells RF Product Line to Agilent

Big news yesterday in the RF test and measurement world as Agilent agreed to purchase all of Keithley's RF test product line. It appears that these products were not profitable for Keithley in the short-term so they were turned into cash as they expect to receive proceeds of approximately $9 M and to realize a pre-tax gain in the range of $2.5 to $3.5 M during its first quarter (ending this year) as a result of the sale. It also seems that all workers at the Santa Rosa design center have been offered jobs with Agilent’s Santa Rosa-based Electronic Measurement Group as the Keithley location on Aviation Boulevard will become an Agilent facility next month which is good news for the employees. The official news item is linked above.

On the final day of the M2M Business Exchange in Brussels the issue of mHealth was brought into focus in a number of presentations (*listed below) covering issues such as standardisation, reimbursement, user acceptance, mHealth communities and aiding healthcare in developing countries.

At the end of the session Chair, Marc Sauter, director of strategy at Cinterion Wireless, summarised the key points that had been raised and highlighted the challenges that need to be addressed.

He began, “The sessions offered a comprehensive and detailed overview of the mHealth market from a number of different angles. What is clear is that we have a complex eco-system and value chain in the healthcare market, which, as has been demonstrated throughout this conference, is reflected throughout the entire M2M market.

“A key issue is the standardisation process, which is crucial for the success of mobile health. But since the official standardisation is struggling the likelihood is that standards will increasingly be developed by companies. As was mentioned[1] Microsoft, Intel, General Electric and others are active here.”

Another issue raised was the channels for reimbursement for mHealth services with the example given that if a patient receives a service via telemonitoring there can be a different means of reimbursement from the health service or insurance company than if that patient had visited the doctor in person, although the service was comparable.

Sauter then maintained that the ease of use and functionality of devices will determine user acceptance. He said, “This is particularly pertinent in the mHealth sector where often the users are elderly people or very young people who are not familiar with the latest technologies. We have to take that into consideration when designing devices. Also, as has been said several times during this conference, with regards to user acceptance a question that always has to be asked is: can you trust the system?

Also discussed was the creation of mHealth communities in cities, regions and provinces whereby all the players work together to share data, share information and their experiences and create a unique, tailored service.

With regards to the development and implementation of mHealth technology he referred to a presentation[2], which raised a number of issues. These included defining the set of data that needs to be monitored. In particular it is crucial at the beginning to get this definition right in order to get the right diagnosis. Then there has to be acceptance of the device and the system, alongside data security and privacy and the definition of guidelines and processes on how to use and implement the technology. And as commercial companies developing systems and providing services need to make money, business cases need to be developed.

Sauter commented, “The M2M technology is there. We have cellular/platforms, mobile operators[3] say they have services in place and we have service providers offering services today. But we have to be more informative so that the end users and doctors know what to do with it.”

With regards to implementation, specific mHealth projects[4] are already in operation with encouraging results. Sauter commented, “Such projects show just what the potential is for mHealth and I think it should encourage us to go further down the line.”

He continued, “It was made clear in presentations that the eco-system will develop. The younger generation of doctors and patients will emerge that are used to playing around with iPhones and other devices, that will enable them to better adopt new technologies. New healthcare patterns will emerge.

“mHealth is not just about the health monitoring of patients but can also assist in healthier and more comfortable living[5]. It has a role to play in staying fit and can offer piece of mind too. Telemonitoring can also provide health information to doctors about patients in their own environment without the stress of travel, waiting in surgeries etc, and provide more accurate data, leading to better treatment.”

In a global context the issue of bringing better healthcare to developing countries was raised[6]. Examples were given whereby mobile phone services or applications of the phone can help to improve the healthcare situation. Here, GSM, GPRS and HSPA technologies are all being utilised for mHealth applications.

Summing up Sauter said, “The mHealth revolution is going to be very significant and a huge market. We all need to work hard to develop this market to its full potential.”

*Presentations
1. mHealth initiative – introducing the mHealth revolution and its impact on healthcare strategies, Peter Waegemann, executive director, mHealth Initiative
2. Examining the latest technology for monitoring the elderly, ill or disabled, Maurice Zembra, general manager, Medical Data Transfer
3. mHealth – new business perspectives for mobile operators, Marc Sauter, director of strategy, Cinterion Wireless
4. Understanding how Virga Jessa Hospital in Hasselt, in collaboration with Belgium Social Security has developed a monitoring strategy for patients with chronic diseases, Prof. Paul Dendale, cardiologist, Heart Centre Hasselt, Belgium
5. How can mobile technology support remote diagnostic measures and how can it support the boom of elders who want to prolong the good life at home?, Bjorn Tellefsen, director M2M, Devoteam Telecom
6. Examining Vodafone’s role in founding the mHealth initiative, Caroline Dewing, external relations, Vodafone Group

Richard Mumford

M2M Business Exchange – Smart Thinking For The Future

Smart meters and the home was a key topic at the M2M Business Exchange in Brussels with speakers covering such areas as the creation of revenue streams, the role of mobile operators, the use of integrated technology and how smart metering can help reduce carbon emissions.

Setting the scene as chair of the Smart Meters & Homes session, Gary Thomas, director of PracticaPro, referred to a recent report from Pike Research that estimated that there would be more than 250 million smart meters installed worldwide by 2010.

Thomas stated that, “The opportunity for consumers to take control of their energy usage, reduce their global footprint and therefore help achieve global emission reduction targets is the really exciting part of smart metering.”

He continued, “Things get even more interesting when you start to think about how smart meters might integrate into the wider smart grid. Potentially they have to communicate with network operators, a whole raft of consumer appliances, electric vehicles, microgeneration units etc., and that integration is where the power of smart meters is unleashed.

“But standing in the way of those benefits are a whole raft of technical, commercial and regulatory, social and data security issues, not to mention the small matter of how to engage consumers in the drive for better energy efficiency.”

In his presentation titled Creating additional revenue streams from smart metering, Rich Hampshire, UK utilities practice lead at Logica, maintained that we need smart metering because climate change, population growth and the availability of primary fuels mean that how we satisfy our energy needs is changing and that delivering sustainable, affordable, secure energy requires action.

He highlighted that today’s challenges were to match demand by increasing generating capacity, addressing the intermittency of renewables, local balancing for decentralised generation and infrastructure development to handle load.

Hampshire identified a key objective as being to engage customers through various approaches, including fiscal stimuli, environmental incentives and rewarding them for behavioural change. He also outlined the importance of utilising the multimedia world to engage consumers and simplify interaction.

Environmental issues came under the spotlight when Maher Chebbo, vice president utilities Europe, Middle East and Africa for SAP, and also chairman of the EU Smart Grids Demands & Smart Metering Group considered, How is Smart Metering ICT contributing to the 2020 goal of radically reducing carbon emissions.

He began by giving five ‘energy insight predictions’ – energy efficiency is the ‘first fuel’ choice, Distributed Energy Resources (DER) as a grid support tool, intelligent grid up to $70 billion in 2013, web portals key for active consumers and generators focused on CO2 reduction.

He stated, “The European Commission has fixed clear goals. In Kyoto in 2007 the different goals for energy reduction, for CO2 reduction and the introduction of new renewables were fixed, requiring 20 percent less energy consumption by 2020 compared to the level in 1990. On 7 December in Copenhagen a United Nations conference will again discuss these targets and need to be even more ambitious, not just thinking about objectives for 2020 but by 2050 having reductions of 80 percent compared to 1990.”

He continued, “These targets have to be reached. In Europe the market is open but is not in the US. Since July 1, 2007 every customer in Europe has had the choice to switch to another supplier. This has meant that utilities are having to reach environmental goals while opening up the market, selling some of their businesses and unbundling other businesses. This construct has meant that in recent years some of the investment has been spent on IT in order to get the IT platforms ready for market openness.”

Chebbo posed the question, “What does this mean with regards to Smart Grids?” He proffered, “If you look at the full package from power production to the customer today there is central production and transmission distribution but in the future there will be millions of distributed generators connected to the network. There will be a hub rather than central and linear distribution down to the customer.

“However, the ICT tools to deliver communication technology and services are not ready. We have some models and some experience regarding how to make customers more empowered? But all of these tools have to be revised when you are working in a situation which is not centralinear distribution but you are working in a hub. There has to be completely new thinking as there will be ten times the data that there is today. So, one major aspect of investment in Smart Grids is making these processes available to a wide range of consumers – mostly residential. Smart Grid and smart metering investments are required.

In the presentation, Determining the role of the mobile operator in delivering smart metering, Valerie Le Peltier, director machine to machine verticals for Orange Group, offered another perspective.

“Smart metering is a fantastic opportunity and for us as a telecommunication operator it is also the beginning of a new story. It is the opportunity for rolling out new infrastructures that could be used for other uses and in particular smart city use cases. In some instances new infrastructures will have to be rolled out which, of course, is very complicated, it varies from one country to the next and from one energy to the next.”

Le Peltier commented, “The telecommunication operators are usually called for with regards to the long distance part of the picture and we do want to be there and address the market properly. However, the other area where we think that telecommunications operators can add value is the local data collection network, in particular, rolling out new radio networks that collect such data.”

She added, “As has been mentioned in an earlier presentation GSM might not be appropriate in all cases to connect the meter up to the information system of the utility and also it might not be economically viable to roll out based on GPRS. So, we think there is a business case for advanced radio technologies – mesh networks.

Richard Mumford

Analysts At Dawn – Challenges Facing M2M

Fragmentation, the development of the mass market and standards were key issues raised by the panel, Robin Duke Woolley, Emil Berthelsen and Dave Birch at the Analyst Dawn Briefing held at the M2M Business Exchange in Brussels.

Robin Duke Woolley, founder and CEO of Beecham Research, identified the fragmented nature of the M2M market as being a key issue. He stated. “What’s different about M2M is that it is very fragmented. Due to the broad range of applications there is a broad range of different technologies that can be used to find solutions in the M2M space. So, what tends to happen is that suppliers focus on technology areas that they are familiar with and therefore they only see a very small part of the overall picture.

“Cellular operators and hardware suppliers operate in one part of the market, the Ethernet and broadband suppliers operate in a different part, as do ZigBee, Bluetooth and RFID providers. However, when you put them all together it is quite a substantial area of activity. Add to that the end user and what he is using this stuff for and it is a very significant market.”

That significant market is growing apace and Dave Birch, director of Consult Hyperion, commented, “What is interesting at the moment is the emergence of a mass market and I believe there are four characteristics of a mass market. It has to be accessible, automatic, authorised and authentic. All of those four factors have to be in place.”

Of the four he identified authorisation as being, “the real problem and that is where there are some cracks in the foundations.” He continued, “There is danger that some of the basic security standards don’t get added on until afterwards.”

“Also, I think that how devices search and whether they are allowed to talk to each other is problematical. We know about the problem of authenticity. We understand how to put signatures etc and we tend to focus on the easy things but have probably put off some of the more difficult issues for too long and need to be tackling them.”

Robin Duke Woolley raised the issue of standards saying, “One of the problems with standards in the M2M space isn’t helped by the fact that there are so many different sectors and so many different devices involved in the market, each within a different industrial sector.” He added, “Attempts to achieve interoperability across industry sectors have not moved very far.”

Berthelsen, manager at Analysys Mason observed, “There is an analogy between mobile applications enterprises and M2M. In mobile enterprises one of the focus areas was creating a platform onto which the applications could be launched with the remote devices. The important element here is the ability of the middleware platform to allow people to link to any device across any network at any time. And that is pretty much an ideal scenario that needs to be transferred to the M2M sector.”
During the session there was only time to touch briefly on key issues, so Berthelsen posed the question, “The M2M market in Europe may be growing by 25 to 30 percent per annum but how do we support the market and help it evolve in the coming years?”

Richard Mumford

M2M Business Exchange – Providing Services

Our International Editor, Richard Mumford, visited the M2M Business Exchange in Brussels, Belgium and had the following review with additional posts following this one.

At the opening of the M2M Business Exchange, the conference chairman for the first day, Robin Duke Woolley, founder and CEO of Beecham Research, offered a perspective of the M2M sector when he commented, “The M2M market is all about connected services. It is not about devices. It is not about technology. It is not about infrastructure. It is a means to the end of providing end user services.”

He added, “We are talking about a change in the business of the supply of the devices and the services that surround those devices. We are talking about a change for the end suppliers of those devices in the marketplace.”

He also emphasized that such issues would be under discussion during the two-day conference, which followed on from the one-day pre-conference workshops. He referred to a chart titled: M2M World of Connected Systems, which segmented the market into the nine sectors – Building, Energy, Consumer & Home, Healthcare & Life Sciences, Industrial, Transportation, Retail, Security/Public Safety and IT & Networks – that are key areas of activity, almost all of which are topics of the M2M Business Exchange.

This prompted Robin Duke Woolley to state, “One of the things that is impressive about this conference is its depth of coverage with presentations related to buildings, a number of papers covering energy, consumer and home is a theme that runs through the conference and healthcare will also be discussed. Industrial topics will be covered, alongside transportation and telematics and security and public safety.”

The conference is designed to bring together the entire M2M business chain and aims to address the business models and strategies relating to wireless connected devices. Its scope means that it has attracted 130 registered attendees made up of M2M developers, M2M adopters and end users, wireless module providers, sensor equipment providers, systems integrators, sensor equipment providers, SIM card manufacturers and technology partners.

Throughout the two days there are keynote presentations, tracts dedicated to specific topics, exclusive discussion sessions, analyst briefings and interactive debates. To offer a technological perspective a small showcase exhibition has attracted key players including Cinterion Wireless Modules, Belgacom, Devoteam Telecom, and Tridium.

Richard Mumford

High Growth Areas Projected in the RFID Market

I have been wondering for the last year or so why RFID applications have not been deployed more widely in various industries. I am sure the financial situation has not helped but RFID seems to have a good ROI in many situations. But maybe I am over optimistic and the costs are really higher than I perceive.

ABI has just issued a new report on how RFID is being used or trialed in a variety of industries. Global economic conditions and business necessities have resulted in mixed outcomes but they have identified the three most promising hot-spots as the retail apparel segment, asset management, and active RFID (in a number of verticals).

“2009 has confirmed those assessments,” says RFID practice director Michael Liard. “All three of these RFID application and technology areas have shown strong growth, and today account for 9.3% of the total RFID market, with combined revenues of more than half a billion dollars. We expect the trend to continue in 2010 and beyond: apparel, asset management and active RFID should show a 12.7% combined compound annual growth rate through 2014, outpacing the overall RFID market growth. This is considered strong growth given the level of maturity of many RFID-based asset management applications.”

The adoption of item-level RFID in the fashion apparel market is graduating from pilot testing to full-scale deployment. While installations at Marks and Spencer in the United Kingdom, American Apparel in the US, and Charles Vögele in Switzerland remain the largest contributors to market growth, scores of companies are now in various stages of implementation.

A few years ago at RFID Journal Live I was a part of a demonstration of what we called the "Magic Mirror" that would read tagged apparel and display all of the item details on a screen (intended to be placed next to on within the mirror in a changing room). The display would show all of the colors that were available, the construction and material details and other details about the item. It would also recommend other items or accessories that would match well with the item being tried on (e.g. a nice tie or scarf to go with the shirt or perhaps matching pants or skirts). I thought at the time this would be an immediate hit and prove to enhance sales tremendously.

ABI also thinks asset tracking and management is showing particular applicability to work-in-process tracking, including spare parts and tools; Returnable Transport Items (RTIs); IT asset management; medical assets, rental item management (library books, media, laundry, etc.); and yard management.

They also state that active RFID-based solutions, including real-time location systems (RTLS), is expected to experience solid growth in a number of verticals, such as healthcare, manufacturing, aerospace and defense, transportation, and commercial services, in support of asset tagging, people tracking, and more.